Former Analyzes:

 Crude broke out but sellers will interrupt it on it`s way to $ 105.45. Weekly CCI overbought at  + 213.

- FGBL on it`s lowest level for almost two years, leaving the range to the downside if it isn`t a fake. Could be considered a 1-2-3 top. Resistance now around 168 - 170. Wouldn`t be the first     time   that it  is fooling traders. Looks like there isn`t too much space on the downside for the first attack. 

- U.S. T Bonds had a follow through of 3 points after the negative January candle.

- Silver made a slightly lower low of the prior week`s candle but still holding the $ 22. Weekly harami cross, CCI still below zero. After testing  the $ 22 again it closed above last week`s close.

- NG shot  up after the explosive prior week`s bullish engulfing by 20 % but ended where it started.

- Stock indices: In dubio pro reo, YM closed above the still rising daily sma 200 and the 34.611. Failed to close above 35.159 on a weekly base, maybe another down wave will occur although daily and weekly support areas took place. NQ :  a lower  low of January`s candle pending, but  doubtful. Weekly CCI zero line reject is positive if it can keep going up but still connected to interest rates, usually the key to the NQ..

- Bitcoin meanwhile steady up 20 % within two weeks. Gave up trading it intra day, most often a sudden move of around three hours, then silence.

Only other probability this week: A higher high in the Euro FX.  I think there is too much overhead resistance for running straight up.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

01/29

Let`s highlight the supposedly positive side of last weeks`s massacre: The lows have already been reached  on Monday without a follow through which simply could have been a fake. NQ and YM are both trading in ranges, YM even made a kind of a weekly reversal, measured by the classical chart analysis, week`s high at the weekly pivot point, the NQ a long legged doji on high volume. Friday`s up move has been due to window dressing again which should be continued on Monday. Nevertheless it isn`t of course out of the danger zone, next step for the YM is a holding above the still rising daily sma 200 34.766 , the most traded level 34.611 and weekly 35.159. A weekly close below 33.841 would  probably be a bad sign. A problem could be that there is no more daily  support below, only intra day areas. The daily areas always occur with a delay, so it  could look different on Monday. You can compare the double top with the Bitcoins` double top but there`s a high probability of a difference between a gambling tool and the stock markets. The magenta lines display the former most traded levels of the prior 200 days. It`s rare in intra day trading that as long as the upper level of the value area is at the top the market seriously plunges. Well, of course no guarantue.  We have to be prepared for testing the new weekly and monthly pivot points.

What comes out of the NQ`s doji one can`t know, running higher or back to the wick again. The blue monthly candle which could demand a lower monthly lower low in the YM is off the table (which doesn`t mean that it can`t happen while the NQ`s monthly blue is still in place which doesn`t mean that it has to happen necessarily.......

Conclusion: It doesn`t look like a crashing market yet, that should have happened after Monday`s low.

Prior week`s possibilities all right: The Nikkei lost around 800 ticks, YM lower low as well. Lumber  down from $ 1146  last Friday to a low of $965 last week. FDAX held 14.988 by the weekly close. On 01/15 I considered it a long way , then it has has been done within one day  on Monday.

Next possibilities: At  first the noticeable blue large bearish engulfing in silver, demanding a lower low. We have key levels at $ 22.03, $ 21.78 and the whole support area down to $ 21.41. Already mentioned, work around $ 20 still undone but as long as there are enough buyers around $ 22 it still can move sideways. 

What is the sense of all of it? Just be careful with timing and entries against orange and blue candles. Some have only a little follow through before reversing, some are the beginning of a longer trend and a handful is for nothing.

NG should rise further on, this time a really large  orange bullish engulfing patter. Don`t expect a miracle, but +10 % could be in the cards. Crude is currently free of serious resistance, monthly`s close on 01/31 could be important. Bad news for inflation so far especially for consumers in the Euro zone (and related currencies) where the dropping Euro is a catalyst. Remember, it comes from $ $1.2450 one year ago, now down at $ 1.11.

Bitcoin: Something like a hammer out of support. Not a bad candle, no idea. I recognized the the more important moves happen over the weekend very often and can lead the way for the upcoming week.

Last the U.S T Bonds are about to build a blue monthly candle. Well, the monthly candles are not so reliable like the weekly candles, but anyway it`s worth taking note of it.

01/12: "This only means that the market is currently out of the danger zone, won`t rule out another test of the sma 200"  (Carl Muschler, 12/01)

01/22:

It`s always nice to meet good old friends. Well, this time not so nice as stock indices accelerated their plunge.  The YM closed below 35.159, the sma 200 34.748/ (still rising by 4 ticks daily on Friday) and the most traded level of the prior 200 days at 35.611. 34.375 again. Well, its diving now into support areas, I would keep in mind the remarkable December low around 33.841 if it doesn`t reverse above. The weekly candle demands a lower low than last week`s. Looking far ahead, the monthly candles are also demanding lower lows if it stay blue until 01/31. And it can always be killed by a counter attatck bar. The answer, my friend, is blowin``in the wind......

The old ther0y: First time missing it (sma 200) by a few ticks, next time breaking through but recovered, leading  to record highs. This time.......??????

NQ blew away the 15.000. after leaving 15.538 behind, the weekly bar can be followed by a lower low.  Not necessarily as it is the second blue one in a row. Same picture like the YM. Monthly bar could lead to a lower low if the monthly stays blue until 01/31. without a sudden counterattack bar. Actually not worth mentioning, but I got my late revenge with a swing below 15.503  (remember this deadly wrong mistake?)

Predictions right in  crude,  made a higher weekly high while U.S. T Bonds went further down south.

Upcoming  possibilities: Lower low in Lumber after rejected at main resistance $1321, closed down at $ 1143, more than 10 %. Nikkei lower low than last week. 27465 could  hold it, currently resistance.

Crude opened the door but it`s not for sure that it will remain above $84.95, the monthly minimum target and currently the upper level of the 9999 days value area.. Roll day on 01/24 but I forwarded it in the monthly chart

No aid for the Bitcoin, lack of buyers, on Friday the next down step followed. Deeply oversold it can remain in a lower range or some large buyers occur. The new 24/7 "death cross " is completed, now let`s see what will come of it. Onr thing is different: It never closed below the 24/7 sma 365,. Once it helped to defend the $ 29.500 bottom. Now it`s above at  $ 47.860

FDAX followed  through after the two weekly shooting stars,

All stock index moves copyright  by the FED.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

01/15, Markets in short: 

Best runners: Lumber, exceeded the target $ 1160 to $ 1308, now running into major resistance.

Crude shot through resistance $ 72.33 and closed at  the latest high $83.82 which means a fresh high based on the weekly close.

Bitcoin`s monthly evening star had a follow through for testing the September low at $39.600. Including the down spike of 12/04 (24/7) there are three lows at almost the same level. 24/7  50-200 sma is about to build the next "death cross" but the sma 200 is rising again while the sma 50 is falling. It has to get out of this cage somehow for not dropping further. Recently I wrote that the first down wave reminds me of the beginning of the long sideways movement between 29.500 and 42.000. The question is whether buyers will step in at current levels.

The YM did business as usual, tested the monthly pivot point, followed by a sharp rally. Unlike the times before it couldn`t hold higher levels and retraced to the same level to close 300 ticks above the monthly pivot point, caused by an intra day reversal of 335 ticks during the last four hours yesterday. Major resistance around 36.400. Here we can only watch the development step by step.  Weekly close above 35.159 still important.

NQ held  above the important 15.538 after a down spike to 15.170, leaving a weekly doji. No serious injuries yet but like the YM a little bit in danger. Also watching it step by step. Sideways range with false breakouts up and down. The three weeks pattern is an evening star with a shooting star in the mid candle before last week`s doji. Failed four times to close above the mentioned 16.458 on a weekly base.

Silver still the same game, buying around $ 22 but doesn`t get further on.

NG made a huge up spike after a weekly bullish engulfing from $ 3.90 to $4.80 , finished the week with a highwave candle at $4.26. Anyway, a range breakout - so far. Fortune gamble.

Big loser have been U.S. T Bonds, down from 164.00 to 155.11.A higher high didn`t occur, just the opposite. now the weekly candle is demanding a lower low. Other  probabilities: Higher high in crude sooner or later, perhaps doubtful or short lived because it is currently slightly below strong resistance. Next existing resistance currently at $ 106.09 in the 02 - 22 contract. Well, after gaining 40 % within a few weeks the train could take a break. Entry $ 62.68 has been perfect. 

FDAX with two weekly shooting stars in a row is indicating selling pressure but it doesn`t mean that much as long as it is remaining in a range down to 14.988, in case of dropping perhaps with an overshooting to 14.690  - but this would be a long way to go.

12/28:

This has been what I was for hoping for, a low around Christmas at the most traded level of the prior 200 days, 34.580. Everything is running properly but don`t to forget cash in at least after window dressing,  at least partially.

12/18, Markets Yesterday:

Amazing Friday. At first: The YM missed the former resistance level by a few ticks. (last weekend I mentioned the 35.159), even lower than the Fed - spike.  You know my theory: First time missin`, next time breakin` through. Well, it had quite a good recovery but the daily bar demands a lower low (nobody knows how far it goes if it will happen at all). This time both weekly probabilities were at a 100 %, the YM made a higher high, The NQ only a little and now "caught in the cage" below 458.  YM weekly close above 35.159 still important. No weekly probabilities this time.

Although it`s early, let`s have a look at  the current monthly patterns. There are only two eye catching patterns: Bitcoin could build a monthly evening star and the NQ ( yes we had this several times) can mount up in a monthly bearish engulfing. No probabilities, just lookin` a little bit further. Please give us a significant low in the stock markets around Christmas again........

Latest monthly evening star had no follow through in  Bitcoin, it took some time for rising again.

For Crude look at the monthly chart above,  the area around $ 73.32   is still resistance in any time frame. The weekly chart is telling nothing.

Strong weekly bar in Gold, perhaps a weekly popgun. Silver came up by a weekly hammer. I my opinion not enough, I want it confirmed. After dipping below the mentioned $ 22.04 it closed at $ 22.36. For months the area around $  22 has been bought on dips. Perhaps I`m too slow....Nevertheless unfinished business down to the $ 20 area but workers could strike.

U.S Bonds retraced 50 % of the losses, a higher high of  the prior  week is still pending. Repeating: Nothing is at a 100 %!

Lumber scratched the $ 1140, (taking some profits at $ 1110) but left a weekly red doji. We will see whether it will have any impact, $ 1160 not far away, closed at $ 1089 so that the move cooled down. Not such a long way to get NG for free. Of course not, I`m looking for a  bottom between $2.95 and $ 3.54.

12/17:

Stock markets  sideways within an up trend . The significant breakout above 35.938 didn`t last very long., now the YM is pickin` up the dirt from the ground. One possibility is going all the way back to the beginning of the FED - spike 35.400. Well, a maybe  not a must. At  the end of the day nothing exiting happened. No major news today, so a drop on a Friday can be doubted. 

Bitcoin`s picture worsened even more, but you`ll never know. Just in periods of such a negative looking chart somebody`s comment pushed it up (same vice versa at the top). Crypto markets became unusual quiet. At least the first chance passed by, it dropped below the 60 sma 200, starting with an evening doji star and currently also below the sma 50 again and still below the daily sma 200 (futures contracts) so it currently looks more like a short play. Almost all other markets boring. Looking for a long entry into silver but will wait for the weekly candle to be finished. Probably no reason to hurry, Harry.

12/16:

Good news from 12/13. We almost got it all back in the YM . May be there is a lid on it around 35.900, we will see. Profit taking at Bitcoin`s first touch with the 60 sma 200 at $ 49.400. Now let`s see how the 60`s moving averages are doing, stabilization or collapsing.  For the time being just a kiss to the weekly PP; futures contracts still below the daily sma 200. Crude roll day into the 02-22.

12/15:

Bitcoin: First step, done, buying at $ 46.500, pt at 48.800. Two daily chances for buying around weekly S1. Will exit at once if it drops below the falling 60 sma 50 significantly. Well, like last time a kick out of  nowhere seems to be required. The first step is not necessarily the big winner. Stock indices not looking good intra day but this can change. 60 sma 200 still rising. Currently battling the weekly pivot point. A lot depending on the FED today.

12/13:

Great short below 938, more than expected. Good news: we will probably  get it all back.

12/11. Last week`s Recap:

At first the best runner: Lumber closed at $ 1069, doubling from it`s low.  Existing resistance around the $ 1160. Second: I`m no more interested in Copper, it mostly takes time for almost nothing.

Last week`s probability: 0 %, U.S. T Bonds dropped from the prior week`s close, no higher high. Well, already written, it won`t happen or it needs more time. Anyway, no real counterattack bar.

Crude long remaining, after partial selling nothing can happen. Stop 62.70, wait and see.

About Bitcoin almost everything is said.  Weekly inverted hammer, selling pressure. Volume spike around $ 46.600. I don`t know what will happen over the weekend but $ 46.300 - $ 46.600 could be worth eyeing  for a counterattack. Just watching the simple moving averages 50/200 and the CCI in the 60 chart of the futures contracts. A CCI zero line reject let it drop from $ 50.000 to $ 47.450 on Friday-

So let`s get to the stock markets: Rollover into the 03-22 contract. YM`s weekly bar is demanding a higher high, as it broke through the new weekly resistance 35.159 it could test it from above sooner or later. Beside,  33.841 is the lower level of this resistance area. A weekly close below 35.159 wouldn`t be an advantage. These kind of weekly levels occurred for the first time over the prior couple of months. It is telling us that strong buying pushed away the sellers but they won`t possibly surrender. ´Watch the 742 - 812 - 840 area as  a potential battle zone. Target 938 now only 50 ticks away.

Same with the NQ, here we have the weekly levels at 16.458 and 15.338. Both indices very strong on Friday, buying dips payed off, some short gambles as well.

Gold neutral, Silver further down. Around $ 22.04 could be support. Both`s weekly CCI below zero, Silver deeper than Gold.

A critical remark to Cathie Wood`s investments. Although I appreciate her very much, her best times seem to be over. She increased  the target for Bitcoin to $ 560.000, bought RobinHood Markets before it lost 50 % and recently bought Twitter at a 52 week low. This seems to me like a fortune gamble. The deeper she is getting into the red the more risk she has to take. Maybe that time will teach me better but I can`t recognize any strategy. An anti - Ark ETF has been released a couple of weeks ago which is trading just the opposite of  Cathie. Even the bad times are good (The Tremeloes)? Not necessarily....

12/09, Bitcoin Special:

At the end of the day Bitcoin did what I expected, even dropped to $ 48.700 for reversing back to $ 51.300, bad luck of getting out of the short too early but that doesn`t matter. A matter of fact ist that it has broken the up trend line up from the low around $ 29.500. We have to watch the reaction, it will probably attack the line from below, perhaps several times - or the line line doesn`t play any role at all. As you know, we know almost nothing about Bitcoin`s mystery moves. Nevertheless the potential to the upside seems to be limited by the broken trend line for the time being , on the other hand it leaves more upper  space by time - but the daily sma 50 started falling. U.S. Gamblers are watching the sma 50 in any instrument. Potential to $ 57.000 is given, the question is when and at which level  it will start (perhaps today? I don`t know).

 

12/08:

MBT short closed at 50.300, maybe too early but too much risk, waited long enough. By 7:30 no further action in any market, scalping as usual.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/06:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

16:35:

Long and short pretty good today, latest short from 740, 441 next target and - perhaps - a few ticks above 375, 399 seems to be good.  Partial selling Crude at $ 68.98. 16:51: Ok, 358 S1, counterattack for a handful of Dollars, target 436. 16:58: Pt 412, 436 and 448. Currently no position.

03/12: Dow Jones books 618 points rise, clinches largest one day point gain since November 2020. Investors shake off omicron-sparked jitters. Sounds familiar?

This only means that the market is currently out of the danger zone, won`t rule out another test of the sma 200. Bad luck, the 705 short would have been a good chance, YM has been down to 420 after the break. Currently back to 703, long from 547, stop 580.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22:15:

This is what I like, a real flat uptrend. So enough space left without breaking through the trend line in the 60. Nevertheless it can become a bear flag, this line could be important.

21:00

Trying to short this market, POC is up to current levels, CD deeply negative. First trial at 697, long position closed as well. Usually I need at least four 15 minute bars without a higher high (bar close) but I`m takin` the risk.

21:13: Well done. 100 pocketed in,  stop 705. Targeting 579 next. 21:27: Lower shadows still display interest in buying. Who`s gonna win? 21:32: Stopped 705. Finished another great day. NG collapsing down to $ 4.05. Somebody had the clue but didn`t make big money out of it. Anyway, sold most of the long position at $ 6.21, good enough.

21:51: Cannot sit aside, next short at 705, pt 598. Stop 697. Usually one more higher high is demanded. Wait and see. 21:55 Touchdown 579. Next target 547. 21:59: Why did you reverse 6 ticks above 547? Short closed at 581. Yeah, missed the possible up run to 740 by two ticks right now., high 738. Last word perhaps not spoken.

 

12/02, 07:15:

The main question for the time being is: Can the YM sustain holding above the daily sma 200? ( today 34.216, still rising by 13 ticks a day but flattening). The counterattack is not so  weak so far but as the picture worsens (daily, weekly CCI below zero, monthly dark cloud cover, daily sma 50 starts falling) more technically oriented sellers came in. Today started like Tuesday and Wednesday. There is potential for snapping back to at least 34.740 but if  bargain hunters don`t step in or more short covering doesn`t occur today or tomorrow this might take a longer time. Currently holding a long position from 34.202, first target - of course the pivot point and 34.375. So we have to follow the markets, the price action after the opening bell could be more important than ever over  the prior twelve months, also tomorrow`s employment report. On the other hand it`s no way for sure that it will break through the 32.800 / 33.000.  Up to now no reason to panic.  Don`t remember the year but at that time the low has been around Christmas. This would be a perfect match for monthly, quarterly and yearly window dressing. Ok, looking too far ahead.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20:45:

Great moves, old resistance has been replaced by new resistance. Nevertheless I guess (what else?) the YM will close above yesterday`s close, a 240 support area has built and there is something to catch up to 34.666 or higher in the 60 and 746 in the 240, not necessarily today. Punish me if not. Like every day, the last 15 - 30 minutes ahead of 22:00 are the most important. Currently still directed downwards, the other possibility is breaking through 375 or reversing slightly above like yesterday or below. 34.439 important level. 21:00: That doesn`t look too good. 60 minutes to avoid being punished, no chance, support erased. Same game like months before at the 375, first time missing it by a few ticks, next time breaking through. Let`s welcome the daily sma 200, great short play, now long at 206. Out at 250,  partial selling 276. Underestimated the move as usual....Next trial 182. Thinking of Crude which shot through the sma 200 at it`s first  touch for months. Hope it won`t go this way but no support from the delta yet.  Selling partial at 300, stop 180. 21:50 - game over for today, NQ also hit hard.

 

There a free newsletters, Need To Know is short, very interesting and contains two funny stories every day. 

12/01, 08:00

Violent buying is required to break through newly built resistance levels and areas. Major resistance 34.667, 34.692, 34.713, 34.747, 34.766, 34.782 - 34.796, 34.853, 34.937 and 35.156. First let it break through ( very doubtful but nothing is impossible), then see further on. Daily sma 200 today at 34.184 - 34.209. New weekly support (?) and resistance levels 34.384 - 35.246. It`s occupied negative but can turn into the opposite, at least for a certain time. Anyway, 35.246 is new weekly resistance. Would go too far to explain this  complex indicator. Monthly pattern a dark cloud cover, monthly pivot point now at 35.117. CD shot to death during the 60 minute bar til 22:00 but this could  have also been a delta sell off what would be positive. Unfortunately one never knows, on the other hand it`s not of such a big importance as we are following the price move which is currently still directed upwards and the CD can recover.

NQ keeping up well, not being very impressed of all the bad news up to now, another monthly gap up by today. NG finally reached $ 4.50. I`m keeping my hands off, although it got me some nice winners trading NG sucks. Holding the remaining long term position until it`s death or I can recognize any convincing pattern. Monitoring Crude closely, monthly candle is demanding a lower low. Doubtful as well because $ 65.69 is a firm support level of the monthly chart and it just took off from there. Anyway, this market is also going nuts.  Bitcoin treading water, short term support and resistance almost holding wage. Lumber going ahead.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22:05

Same procedure as last time. Reversing  9 ticks above 375 for shooting up 175 ticks within 15 minutes. Good gag.

18:00

Same procedure as yesterday.  The 15 minute bar, ending 17:00, turned the delta negative, allowing a last up spike to 697. 

16:35

CD still up. really front running (up to now). What the YM tries to do is getting back into yesterday`s value area above 939. As you can see by the 15 and 60 minute wicks, sellers don`t like this. Hard work - until possibly buyers give up.

11/30, 11:00

Since 09:00 the cumulative delta in the YM is rising so chances for building a bottom are not too bad. But: it´s currently too far away from it`s moving average and can be destroyed ahead or after the opening bell like yesterday. I think the market will calm down within the current area, the second storm seems to be over, 520 shouldn`t be undercut significantly. As long as it`s below today`s POC there`s also no reason for too big longs. POC currently at 668 - 673, remember it`s always a battleground or resistance and changing it`s level, depending on volume. And up to now, 12:15, there hasn`t been a single positive candle up from the 15 minute charts. So what, great short play in the early morning.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11/29, 08:30:

It has to be another day of  extremes for rising further on as the average daily extreme high has already been reached early at 35.113. Well, that doesn`t mean too much after this Friday. As long as the area around 34.666 is giving support (a) long position(s) are offering a good chance, next target 35.156. Short positions also welcome, currently it´s becoming  sticky during the second attack around 113. A 15 minute double top? I don`t believe in this. After all, too early to judge, the truth will probably be told after the opening bell, to where it is a long time to go. Possibly written too much about possibilities over the weekend. Crude opened gap up, the beginning of the latest huge up run as well. Perhaps no reason to hurry this time. NG down to $5.05, driven by a statement of Joe Biden. Oh boy, what a gambler NG is. Bitcoin also gap up and back to$ 58.100. Thanks to El Salvador!

11/27, Last Week`s Recap:

A Friday that couldn`t be any blacker. Almost everything plunged with the exception of NG, Bonds and the Euro (weekly hammer above support). Really that black? At first sight certainly yes. Most surprising was the collapse of crude with a loss of 12.63 % on Friday and the rise in NG by almost 20 % from the low at $ 4.65 to $ 5.48. Very funny, recently I wrote that both charts are looking different. Absolutely true - but just the opposite of the way I was thinking. Long Crude has been stopped with a loss, more profit taking in NG at $5.45. At the end of the day a costly day off by missing one of the largest moves of the prior months. But for sure I wouldn`t have been short the entire way down, so no reason to quarrel. Perhaps it even kept me from losing because you might become feeling too safe as long as every dip is being bought.

As Crude is touching the daily sma 200 for the first time since November 2020 I will look to buy again.

Let`s highlight the positive sight: Crude is now trading slightly above it`s March high which could lower inflationary pressure, Copper and Lumber still sideways. Based on a year to year base it needs four more months without rising significantly to reduce Crude`s  impact on inflation. At least the pace could slow down. 

The stock indices left few resistance areas, quite usual during such a fast move. From this point of view climbing again is possible for sure when traders and investors have finished selling. Every short position has to be covered which accelerates a move in the opposite direction. 

Remembering the stock market`s collapse in 2020 there have been news like "worst day, week or month since....." A few days later the best day since 1929 took place. This time the headline is " Worst day of 2021"  and even the worst Black Friday since 1931. A daily down range of 1150 ticks in the YM is indeed remarkable. A few weeks ago I mentioned the never seen overbought condition in the monthly (and the weekly as well) CCI since April. Does that mean that there has to be a severe breakdown? No, it is healthy for the markets to take a breather and dismantle overbought condition by time.  So far quite usual. But it cannot be absolutely dismissed out of hand that a mid term top pattern is developing what I am doubting for the time being (can`t rule out that next week will teach me better). In 1987 the markets lost around 40 % within  a few days after a last up spike, starting on a Friday. On the other hand the YM is only 20 % above it`s long term high in 2020 and can`t be considered over-speculated, still supported by low interest rates. About the NQ I wrote that it either could build resistance like last time or simply dive into the volume mountain. It chose the second variant. Putting it all together, the new covid variant can`t be the reason for another market crash and I can`t find any other convincing argument for it. Sellers try to sell high, buyers want to buy low. Business as usual. Daily CCI doesn`t come out of overbought territory but went slightly below zero by Friday. Will we see the 34.375 one more time? Who knows.

I am getting to my biggest mistake - underestimating. Reading my comments of the prior months again I often wrote that a move would need time to develop. I will never write this again as some entries or exits have been almost perfect (not overestimating myself!).  I have to admit that the markets are faster than me very often. On the other hand I wrote "better underestimating than overestimating" which is surely true. As a result one has to keep in mind: The future isn`t really predictable and you are never finished with your way of trading or investing. Actually nothing new. For example, I just added the investigation whether the 60 minute sma 200 is rising or falling (see 60 minute chart above). This move started with a falling sma 200 what I mentioned. Using  a simple momentum 1  on it, the indicator came close to the zero line from below but has been rejected so that from the day where it started falling it never rose again. I don`t know whether this will work that perfect again in the future, but anyway, it seems to be  worth watching. The problem is - you probably know it - that many automatic tools are working pretty good over a certain period, then start giving mostly wrong signals. I could do back testing but honestly spoken, I am too lazy for it and want to see it develop live because it probably can`t be considered a stand-alone.

On the other hand I have to praise myself for highlighting 35.882, which has been  almost exactly the high before the plunge (which of course I couldn`t know) and hinting again and again to the monthly pivot point and the most traded level of the prior 200 days, currently at 34.666. So what now? The stock indices are still trading above the rising 200 days moving averages but it`s coming closer. The 240 and 480 minute CCI is deeply oversold below - 300. Unfortunately I cannot interpret the cumulative delta volume as the machine has to run all the time without any interruption because the CD has to be recorded and you need at least one day for getting an impression. So what, I am looking for the chance of a reversal on Monday or Tuesday as we are approaching month`s end. Will be awake at the opening on Monday (U.S. Sunday afternoon). It may take time.... Sorry, didn`t want to write this again. Also true became the sentence " the best can become the worst and vice versa" when Silver has been rising sharply and NG plunged. NG`s move has been already mentioned, Silver lost almost 10 % from it`s latest top.

What are the weekly chart`s probabilities? At least slightly lower lows in Gold, Silver, Copper, NQ (also weekly bearish engulfing), FDAX and the Nikkei. Weekly probabilities, a couple of  weeks ago the YM moved a few ticks lower after this kind of a monthly candle, followed by a sharp 800 ticks one day gain and the latest record high. So the probability is high but the markets can also rise in the meantime until the next drop or it simply doesn`t happen as there is nothing at a 100 %. No opinion on Bitcoin, daily 24/7 CCI below zero, didn`t manage  to get above the daily sma 50 again which now is about to start falling, futures sma 50 still rising, sma 200 nearly flat. The pattern - higher high and lower low - is difficult to judge, the futures contracts still display a double top. Up to now running out of buyers after huge profit taking. Well, I guess El Salvador will push it up, they just bought 100 Bitcoins. (source: yahoo)

Last but not least we have rollovers in NG, Silver, Gold, Bitcoin, Copper and Interest Rate futures. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11/24:

No certain observations, NQ recovers, YM`s up trend perhaps too steep.  (always using the same flat trendline with a certain degree of steeepness, leaving a lot of space for  frontrunning markets to drop without braking through the trend line. Drawing it from every new low because flat trendlines usually won`t be broken too soon. The thinking behind : Always eyeing whether there will be slightly higher low., the beginning of many long lasting trends. A  difference between trading where you like fast moves with  fast success and investing in the longer run. Too steep trends collapse at one point often, just happened in the NQ.. Take the wild ride but don`t be surprised one day. At the end of the day, everything a matter of taste and you have to take what the markest give to you. Just an excursion  into theory.

Watch 35.882 if it is moving further up. Let it all run  and check your stops. The days around Thanksgiving tend to be more quiet. (no gurantee!).  Will move to another place today, having a break from trading for three days. A hint for Thomas: If you play the Wall Street Shuffle, don`t forget the 200 % and 386 % extensions. Consider it more as price targets than reversal points which nevertheless can happen at these levels. Good luck!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22:00:

YM daily high 793. Perfect although exited too early. There are other things beside trading  than waiting four more hours tthat  can perhaps bring a better result  - or not.

18:00

Closed YM long at 643 after partial selling 705. Partial selling NG $ 5.05, Crude $ 78.49. Stop up to $ 75.71. Bitcon three days almost the same low, rarely seen this. Bad luck today, current high at $ 57.765,  target 57.475 predicted but stopped by a short downspike before a sharp upmove.

 

Pt 480. Weak CD, has to come out of the cellar. Think it will need some time, what should the 240 candle become? If it rises further on it will leave a long lower shadow,, a "needle",  inviting for at least a partial test. So be prepared for another leg down before or after 12:00. The other possibility is a morning star, but this sems to be currently far away. ok, never rule out anything. Next pt done at 510. Targeting 540 and 570 if the move up continues., 383 has to hold.  Partial sale 540. Next YM selling 573 done. Crude not far away from being stopped, 60 minute CCI zero line reject. Breakfast time. Next Pt 598.

Next trial 383, pt 445. NG partial selling $ 4.95.

Long NG $ 4.80, stop $ 4.68.  YM 1-2-3 top major target reached at 402, first long position 518 was shortlived., reversed to short. Not sure whether 402 has already been today`s low, of course partial selling 470. Next exit 504, position safe. Everything is currently pointing down, perhaps it will reach 383. - 352. Waiting for a stabilization. Nevertheless, from which level ever there is some undone work on the upside.

 

11/23:

New long MBT $56.320, first profit taking $ 57.140. Stop $ 56.430 Now it counts..... against a volume mountain around $ 58.000, CD started to rise against the falling MBT. Next target $ 57.475. Didn`t reach, 430 stopped,

Hope to get the YM back to 740 or higher during the day. Still on the floor. higher low, higher close yesterday. Weak CD negative divergence helped to the last minute drop. If dropping further I will perhaps look to buy around 518. Just in mind, depending on the moves. If it fails to keep  above 518 the next chance for a flat 60 up trend is broken. Money taken out of the NQ has to be placed somewhere. Good shorting opportunity 16.588 missed.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

16:55

Crude has been on the edge, sold next at $ 76.85, stop for the remaining position $ 75.40. NG seems to be faking below $ 4.70, I don`t care. If it confirms a false breakout I will look for a long entry. YM long exited at 843, could be wasted time to wait for something big to happen. Not such a bad day, leaving the desk now.

14:40: 

Sold more MBT at $ 59.455, few amunition left. Heavy selling attack at the YM but buyers don`t  surrender and pushing  it above Friday`s close again so far. It`s gonna be a hard way to the top....

11/22, Markets Today:

Crude made a downspike to $74.76, recovered above $ 75. Long entry at $ 75.68, first major profit taking at $ 76.56, next resistance (assuming that it will go further up)  $ 76.85. Shouldn`t go deeply below $ 75.68 again. Will sell out if it reverses, this isn`t a bottom yet but don`t rule out a v - reversal. Perhaps just a first trial. YM tries to recover, not very amazing yet. Weekly pivot point 769., NG could finally break through $ 4.70. Could.....Bitcoin followed the move over the weekend, opended at $ 59.000 but fell back to $ 57.000. Few nearby resistance above, little support below. 60 sma 200 (too?) far away $ 63.000. Currently battling the pivot point and Friday`s close.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11/20, Market`s Recap:

No reason to comment on the NQ.. If you have a look at he monthly YM chart it is just a dot what happened. The weekly chart is different. Count in a move down to 35.356 (or lower), former breakout level and 12 weeks value area upper level. High probabiliy but like everything else not for sure, Bitcoin is further on more like guessing, has this been the low on Friday at the futures contracts daily sma 50, will it contnue it`s way down`or move sideways? We will see, a signifikant double top is still in place. Keen as I am I didn`t close the long position, after selling most if it, latest at $ 58.355 it can`t turn into a loser. Turned back to a kind of trendy moving, I hope these sudden spikes like before won`t repeat too often. This time it has been India which got the stone rolling down, independant from the fact that there has been no support.

The most interesting market beside Bitcoin seems to be Crude now. My favorite buying area is around the former resistance $ 73.24. If it shows signs of a reversal above I won`t hesitate to jump on board. 12 week`s value area lower level now at $ 77.18, so falling "out of bed". Rolled over into the 01 - 22 contract which makes comparism of levels a little difficult in general, the mentioned ones are already adjusted. After a strong week Lumber has got  the chance to break out of it`s months long range, needs to take out 9/11....Weekly CCi approaching the zero line again. Seems that I will be right in the long run but  wrong on the shorter time frames. NG has to decide, the drop below $ 4.70 didn`t happen and it looks like stabilizing. Well, $ 5.30  stop is set for the remaining short position. Hope you enjoyed a litlle gambling the YM last week. Even better if  you also cashed in.

Referring to the sometimes behaviour at broken trendlines, I wrote that fictitious conversation.

Broken Trendline: "I won it!", Stock "You are a liar, of course you didn`t win, I will continue my up trend. Stock is rising against the broken trendline again and again, higher and higher. Trendline pensive. Stock drops, Trendline: "See, I told you" . Stock: I don`t believe you", rising further up aside the trendline. Trendline pensive. Large sellers come in, let the stock drop sharply. Trendline: "Now you have to be convinced that I `m bigger than you! I already warned you 200 points lower."  Stock:"Yes, but......"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15:00

Sold more MBT at yesterday`s poc $ 58.040

14:00

547 filled, exiting the whole position. Next possible targets 514 - 531. If it`s a daily 1-2-3 top you can add around 80 - 150 on the downside but perhaps 547 is a barrier.

Let`s have a look whether we can buy Crude around $ 75 to fulfill Goldman`s  90 target.....NG hesitates to drop, stop tightend to $5.30.

11:30

MBT long reversed next to the entry point for touching yesterday`s close $ 57.495 , first attack rejected. More volume below seems to be required, nevertheless 1700 points in the wallet, more than expected. Let it run or let it die, stop remains unchanged. Short YM was offered again after dropping below 938, yesterday`s high, open, close and the pivot point. Most of the position sold at 35.600. Let it run or let it die, will leave the house now, stop for the remaining position at 853. Next possible target at 547, order placed,  but on  a Friday the market could be pulled up for leaving not such a bad impression.

11/19

Still  waiting for a bottom in Bitcoin, has now reached the futures daily sma 50. The day is still young, so far a doji. Again below yesterdayy`s low , looks absolutely weak. But I`m eyeing the big surprise: a doji today, followed by an up gap tomorrow and leaving a morning doji star. Sorry, I forgot it`s Friday so the position will be closed if not by the stop but at lest ahead of the close. Still below the 5 days value area, so make volume. From the land of dreams. Anyway, first long MBT at $ 55.770, stop 50 above entry because of the spread. Target 56.963 - or please, please higher.  Interesting the fact that the far away 24/7 sma 200 doesnt rise anymore and is tending to change direction. YM is having a battltezone above: 35.957 - 36.036. Can be rejeted one more time, ( Y high 961) move within the range and in a best case scenario it will get over it, but battling again or at least testing it from above.

10:00

First selling at 938. 10:30 seccond sell 958, stop raised to 844.

11/18:

240 sma 200 seems to be giving support so far, low has been 819. Yesterday`s close can become important, already checked one time, next long postion at 848, fix stop at 822.  Partial selling even after small agains, we are still fighting an intra day downtrend.

Helpful is one of my tools, the 50 periods price channel, based on bar close (very important, fading out the noise) and mainly used in a 15 minute chart.  The lower level starts to rise if there has been made no lower low for 12.5 hours, if it makes also a channel high,  a new uptrend has established, not knowing for long it will last. Add the midline for making decions. You can often watch the same on the upside, if there has been made no fresh high for 12.5 hours it starts dopping and tends to put  pressure on prices. Well it`s no that easy everytime but can give good hints as it is reflecting decreasing buiyng and selling power. It can also start a short term uptrend by a higher higher wich then has to be confirmed by a rising low in the price channel not so very much later.  Not the holy grail,  just a tool which is worth watching. And sometimes you see confusion, signifant new low, followed by a V -reversal to a new high within short time, especially after the opening bell. Caused by narrow daily ranges one has to go intail details to squeeze out some bucks.

22:30:.

Reached 942 and reversed, remaining position closed for zero. Still lower lows. If there are no higher highs I want to see at least higher lows. Don`t want to give back money. New day, new game.

21:00: 

Is there a damage in the YM? I don`t know,  the  60 sma 200 turned down today. Although all new supports have been wiped out, astonishingly it didn`t leave new important resistance so I consider it a lack of buying after losing yesterday`s battle and today`s plunge. Now we`re  gonna watch the rising 240 sma 200 which was just met at 35.837 and where I entered a long position again. Stop in mind  below 791, of course partial selling at 890 before it happens, further partial selling at 908 on the way if it keeps moving up. I hope it will attack  the 60 broken trendline by a move higher at least one more time to 938. Like last time it possibly needs a slightly higher low.

More profit taking in NG short at $ 4.85 because it s coming close to support, nevertheless I hope it will  break through it. Energy sector seems to be currently out of fashion. Lumber is strongly moving up the second day, missed out the move, cannot concentrate on too many markets. Bitcoin tries to find a bottom, chances are not too bad but the 1 -2 - 3 bottom is off the table. So far a double bottom but these kind of bottoms are rare. It just looks like the beginning of the bottom around $30.000, which took a long time to recover. It  hasn`t to repeat, there are two other directions to go, but still having  both important moving averages below makes a further heavy drop questionable for the time being. Best would be a failure swing below today`s low which urges short covering.

11/17 03:00, Markets Shortly:

Indeed Bitcoin got the kick down to the 24/7 sma 50 at $ 58.600. Now it`s open whether there will be more lows or a second wave up with a higher high above $ 61.500 (1-2-3 bottom). Has possibly to accumulate more volume in the cellar first. The "simulated" daily sma 50, a 240 sma 300 hasn`t been reached yet. Rising CD since yesterday afternoon against the next move down from $ 61.500  could signal a  higher low but that´s no way for sure. New resistance area above but you know Bitcoin moves tend to be crazy. Fortunately the micro futures contract became tradable  again caused by continued high volume so that even using a 5 minute chart is making sense now as it is leaving fewer gaps meanwhile. YM has been too overbought and couldn`t hold above the 10 days value area yesterday so it failed getting  above 35.247 slightly (35.238) which I considered the next possible target. The very short  frame charts with the exception of the 240 ( flat uptrend, which of course can change, 480 still choppy) are  showing some confusion (slightly lower daily low, higher high) and heavy battling between buyers and sellers, but as long as the 60 sma 200 is rising it shouldn`t get into serious trouble. Could also have been a intra day double bottom yesterday. The 720 chart displays a second support area, so currently everything ok by now. Most traded level of the prior 5 and 10 days at around 36.000, can swing below and above, levels changing by time (everyday volume of any period`s first day disappears) and newly added volume. Anyway, in case of a large accident: Most traded level of the prior 200 days still at 34.670 where should be the ultimative support area beside the monthly pivot point 34.967. Nothing hints to it but it`s always good to be prepared for the almost unimaginable. Short position in NG at the daily sma 50 $ 5.40, partial selling $ 5.12, trailing stop started at $ 5.55. Target $ 4.60 and lower. Unfortunately chances are given that it will remain within a range down to  $ 4.71  with a failure swing below - or even won`t touch it again as it has has made a higher high in the 240, which on the other hand can be a bear flag. Crude without direction, major uptrend of course still valid.

11/13:

On Friday The YM did what I was hoping for, a second leg down after the opening bell, followed by a reversal, never letting a 60 minute bar close below Thursday`s closing price all day long

(a couple of times really on the edge) and hitting Thursday`s high before the close. Pretty good. It  started  with a simple 1 minute delta sell off. Result: a pattern similar to the one  two weeks ago  which was followed by record highs. But there`s a little difference: It built support but didn`t have serious resistance above at that time and is missing out an orange candle this time. Probably a second support stripe is required. In both indices the weekly close is lower than the opening, leaving a kind of a doji, so neutral more or less. Eye the 35.883 (most traded level of the prior 10 days) and 820 as  lines in the sand. The NQ has still got most of it`s volume way down below behind it`s back so currently no reason to worry  seriously. Nevertheless it can fill the current range with  a lot of volume  like we have seen around 15.625 during it`s first trial or just dive into the volume mountain. Average daily ranges of the YM decreased back to around 280, this makes trading time expensive,  lets the number of trades increase but also lowers risk. It showed us over the prior couple of months that even small resistance can lead to sharp pullbacks  if large sellers enter the stage. The best weekly candle? Silver, what I completely missed out. The worst? NG, lowest weekly close for 11 weeks and possibly Crude. Not  to forget, Lumber`s weekly CCI solidified below zero. So far, so good, the best can become the worst after a while and vice versa. But at least the rock resistance around the top in NG seems to be a hard nut to crack in the nearest future. Compared to Crude it looks different. Bitcoin became almost quiet after a wild day and narrowed the distance to it`s steeply rising 24/7 daily sma 50. Still has to make it clear that there will be a real  breakout above $ 68.000.  I don`t rule out that there will be some disappointments although it is in a clear up trend. The catch is the few nearby support  (you can even say no major support areas at all, to be seen in the chart above) and the record high has been reached on lower volume. A kick could be enough to let it plunge down to the sma 50 - theoretically. All that stuff might not keep the crowd from buying. Keep in mind, the 24/7 sma is of course higher than the futures contract`s sma. You always have to watch both.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

21:00: 

All nearby midterm support areas in the YM taken out, up moves always being sold after the opening bell. Weak day, not even reaching the weekly pivot point. It needs fresh money or a down spike,  followed by  a reversal to build  new areas. Nevertheless it should  react to the upside at least for short covering as S1  could give support but it will run into resistance. For the time being sellers are in control until proven otherwise. On the other hand selling is not strong enough for a heavy plunge yet and the 60 sma 200 wheel hasn`t turned downwards. Last  minutes from 21:45 on will perhaps give a hint. NG partially sold at  $ 5.10, for how long will $ 4.75 stand the attacks? Bitcoin surprisingly a no-no today. What the hell happened yesterday?

11/11: 

It took three news to let the indices finally drop, especially the interest rate sensitive NQ. on a percentage base. At first Carnival (just a joke) but the highest inflation numbers for thirty years, second that Warren Buffet is holding a huge amount of cash, not believing that there is potential for stocks to rise anymore. This is the kind of news we know for talking markets down. They need time to live with it and there is a not such a bad chance for at least a partial recovery. The steep uptrend seems to be over and we are about going into a battle zone, support below and new resistance above. The YM has to accumulate volume on the downside to enter the 5 day value area again. NQ has got few support but as usual, it can build. Remember, YM`s monthly pivot point is at 34.967. To watch today is the important 35.938 down to 35.883 (major levels, also watch daily and weekly S1 at 35.844 and 35.779 ), above the weekly pivot point 36.077. From 36.155 - 35.170 on it will become difficult  if the YM can manage moving back towards it at all. It can go up to or  above 36.247 sooner or later but this is more than questionable in the short run. Currently there are three higher lows in the 240 what can signal a short term low if  it won`t be destroyed.

A head scratching fact is that only 15 % of the S&P 500 stocks made a fresh 52 week high, a kind of an alert, accompanied by the continued monthly overbought condition.

Energy markets still playing crazy,  until yesterday afternoon I thought Crude would rise further on, then collapsed suddenly. NG back to $ 4.75, no surprise and no clear direction. Because of extreme oversold condition I took another long position, stop at $ 4.70, not expecting that  much. Bitcoin almost unpredictable intra day again. I am wondering whether anyone made money at the end of the day by trading it on Wednesday. Punished for moving too far ahead of it`s daily sma 50. Nevertheless a notable weekly up gap is still left open in the futures contracts so far. Apart from the partially sold long term position I will  probably be  sitting on hands, this game is simply too dangerous. A 2000 or even more points spike to $ 67.000 wouldn`t be surprising. Until yesterday it had neither short term resistance nor strong support, perhaps one reason for the irrational spikes up and down. 

 

11/06:

I don`t have any idea where the markets could go next.  Energy markets are crazy, stock markets should retreat but almost don`t do, especially the NQ. The only clear downtrend that I can recognize is Lumber - but it can build a long term bottom. Taking profit at 36.300 in the YM on Friday, long position stopped around the low in NG, Crude recovered above $ 80.80 but perhaps left a little damage. Well, it moved 240 ticks below the $ 80.80 what I was hoping for on 10/28. Never going the direct way....Currently a bull flag, don`t really know where the clue came  from. Bitcoin`s daily sma 50 has been of some importance over the prior months and has yet to arrive. Bonds got out of the danger zone for the time being, moving sideways, precious metals as well, Copper can drop further or exceed the latest high. Even the EuroFX should snap back at some point.

11/02:

Actually nothing hints to larger drop in the stock indices, so if the YM dives I will probably prefer buying. It can also become a non event day. Two minutes to go.....

11/01:

The 1-2-3 bottom in the YM has done it`s job on a negative CD (which of course can reverse). Will look to short it  if there are signs of weakness. This could be a slighly lower high or another record high, then falling back below today`s high and today`s value area. Just a wait and see, possibily a similar game like last week. YM`s next major target, written months ago, is 35.938, 35.713, 636 and 547 are of some importance below. I don`t expect that much on the downside by a first attack.

Stopped out of NG, perhaps not an advantage because it is hovering around the 50  days moving average for the second time. More partial selling of Crude at $ 84.52. Every bullflag (wich is questionable at all  for the time being) starts with a lower high.  Can happen or not, I`m still on the long side as long  as there is no serious resistance and it is remaining above $80.80 (this level only valid for the recently bought position).

Bitcoin in no man`s land, perhaps waiting for the daily sma 50 to approach (or vice versa).

 

10/30

Last week`s recap:
It`s always the question where the money will flow. It has been taken off the table in Lumber, Copper and Natural Gas (remarkable weekly chart below).  It wants to climb further on  but somebody puts a lid on it. Think the remaining position will be stopped, already mentioned target could (!) be $ 4.50 -4 .60. Funny that Lumber, rollover adjusted, was trading at $ - 300 in April 2020. This can`t be seen in Crude although it has been below zero for a couple of hours. Conclusion: Nothing, just a note aside.

Good luck, bad luck. Good luck (!) to meet  Friday`s low exactly in the YM and not being stopped,  giving a couple of chances up and down for ending up in a record high, based on the weekly and monthly close. Bad luck that I was waiting in vain for  at least a little spike below 15.503 in the NQ and missing the latest move up. That`s the way it is if you stick to your methods and no tragedy, better than trading in the wrong direction. 

Already calculated YM´s monthly pivot point, not at a 100 % exact, this doesn`t matter, 34.974. It`s never for sure that it will move back towards the pivot point, there should be more record highs in the pipeline, one month is a long time, on the other hand it`s still not so very far away.

Crude undercut $ 80.80 by a few ticks and reversed, a reason for a new long position which is already in safe haven because of partial selling.

Bitcoin`s  second short position has been a mistake because I have overseen a daily bullish engulfing. 

 

14:45:

Partial Crude selling at 82.60, stop tightend to 81.30. MBT short on the edge. YM more profit taking at 575.

10/29:

Crude`s fourth succesful 4 h test of a $ 80.80, moving slightly below, let me enter a new long position at $ 81.28, partial selling at $ 82.19. Stop  for the remaining $ 80.85. New short position in Bitcoin at $ 62.400 as I am expecting it to go way back to the long lower wick in the 60 and 240. Partial sold at $61.000, stop 62.500. Already trading the 11-21 MBT.

YM long position at yesterday`s first resistance 486, profit taking 580, stop for the remaining 468, think it will be ignited. Moving in a batllezone, no trend and no further action until data release.

15:40

Yeah, that´s how you can make 120 ticks within 10 minutes. Will surely pull back today.

16:00: As fast as lightning. Thank you, goodbye.

10/27:

A very short lived record high in the NQ.. The large 4 h down candle demands a lower low (this is never a must but an absolutely high probability), nevertheless leaving the door open for a real new record high. YM`s delta of the first 60 minutes after the opening bell has been so negative that it will need time as it didn`t recover yet. So yesterdays`s low at 618 and the closing price at 665 are of some importance, YM currently about 618. OK, it can climb despite a negative delta as the 15 minute sma 200 is still rising. Perhaps a matter  of time and more volume accumulation above,  it is just after midnight in the U.S. right now and the CD is always moving back towards it`s moving average, a little far away from it at this moment.  I`m currently far away from thinking that yesterday marked the end of this up move but possibly it`s time for taking a breather and ideally the YM would meet it`s 60 sma 200 at the weekly pivot point 348 to reverse again. Unfortunately many things never happen like you think they could, Tuesday left one more higher high, higher low and a higher close.

Bitcoin showed his notorious behavior again, was moving slowly most of the time, then dropped by more than 2000 within one hour, now struggling with 60.000. 60 minute CCI oversold (can stay or get more oversold) and Bitcoin is challenged to show signs of life to the upside ( just moving up to 61.390 and CD improving while writing), 60 minute sma 200 above is about to change direction and Bitcoin to break below the 5 days value area. 24/7 240 minute CCI went back below zero, accompanied by a negative divergence out of overbought territory. Conclusion: In  high danger and perhaps a good opportunity for a short position but above 60.400 still no reason to change mind. Remember, new ETFs will have to buy at a certain time, I don`t excactly know when they will be launched. Another important factor is the upcoming rollover into the 11-21 futures contract.

Curious about oil inventories today. Closed some of the long position yesterday cause I don`t wanna be taken by surprise. In case you didn`t know it yet, meanwhile a micro crude futures contract can be traded. I`m back to packing my backpack today. Sounds funny, doesn`t it?

10/26

Crude: Won`t be surprised about a move below $ 80.82. It`s pending but doesn`t have to occur. Inventories will show.

BTC: Currently hard to believe that it will plunge seriously below $ 60.000 against the strongly rising 60 minutes sma 200 at once. Pivot point at $ 61.785, further support 61.140 - 61.536 - 61.678. Anyway, have to be prepared for sudden moves after a while of silence. YM doesn`t look like dropping, new high at 35.713. Hmm....pivot point 568.

NG: $ 6.20. Let it run, stop above entry $ 5.15.

 

10/25:

Looking to short the YM down to the weekly pivot point   309 - 348 and trading the counterattack.  Tuesday good for a surprise.  Didn`t leave support areas in higher time frames  - but of course almost no resistance above. If it happens  the chain of daily higher highs and higher lows would be disturbed. Can probably only happen by an "accident", the current rise is slow but strong.  Possibly  waiting in  vain....Bitcoin futures up move was a little poor, daily range 1945 points. Still above the rising 60 minute sma 200, CCI above zero but it doesn`t need much to drag it back down below. Vulnerable,  didn`t come out of oversold territory, didn`t reach overbought condition. CD remains laying on the floor. So what,  cashed in some bucks. NG partially sold at latest high $ 5.96, Monday good for a surprise as well, couldn`t belive it.

10/23

You can be right even if you are wrong. After the opening bell on Friday the YM surged 200 ticks, collapsed by more than 200, recovered by more than 200 and closed 140 ticks lower, 17 ticks above the European opening price.  Unchanged compared to Thursday but a weekly gain of  270 ticks from the opening. The distance to the 60 minute sma 200 narrowed to 500 ticks by Friday`s close. The first 15 minutes could have been a delta blow off but the CD hold up steadily so it`s not negative yet. You can keep the white 720 minute chart below for measuring targets if the up move will be continued. Pay attention, monthly pivot points will of course change on 11/01. 

The shorter horizontal lines represent the Fibonacci extensions of the 1 - 2 - 3  bottom as long as it is valid, the longer ones display the extensions of the entire 6 months range. The  extensions have perhaps  to be adjusted if the YM decides to fall back into the range below 35.000 / 34.826 or lower. Below 32.800 you can forget it all.

But that`s not the main issue. The major event has been the launch of the first Bitcoin futures ETF. The up spike has been unnatural, caused by an enormous cash inflow which urged the fund to buy, leading to hold a number of contracts slightly below the allowed limit. When the ammunition has been fired off after a never seen multiplied volume  in MBT there were no more buyers and Bitcoin futures contracts lost around 11 % from the new record high, clearly below the former high $ 65.200 at 61.000, ending up in a weekly shooting star on high volume. For the time being not even a false weekly breakout, so  I am looking for the next buying opportunity  as the surging down volume demands  at least a correction. Further details about the background of this very complex ETF topic can be read on yahoo finance U.S. or other sites. The development is amazing, because of high demand there are new Bitcoin ETFs in the pipeline, Walmart installed 200 Bitcoin ATMs in it`s markets.

Notes aside: Crude rollover into 12-21, continued it`s move, new high at $ 84.31. Next existing resistance (you know new resistance can built anytime)  around $ 86.30, the upper level of the all time value area currently around $ 87.00 Lumber reached the predicted $ 830 but there is a catch: It has been the 01 - 22 contract, trading above the 11 -22 because of contango. Nevertheless a good trade. Copper gave back around 50 % of it`s gain, warning published below. New position in NG at $ 5.02 as it came out of oversold territory and a low at $ 4.83. Of course partial selling, at the 4 h sma 200 $ 5.32, stop for the remaining new position now $ 4.90. I`m not really convinced that  $ 4.82 has been the bottom, first step now requires  a weekly close above $ 5.40  but of course I`m sticking to  the small part of the long term position from $ 3.20. ( bought the introduced United States Natural Gas fund in June). There  is no risk of losing, only a chance of winning or the risk of giving back more money of the remaining  position.

The NQ chart below displays the current major levels of support and resistance. The reason for not getting further on? It has been traded almost all week long up to 210 ticks above the average weekly high (certain indicator calculation).

When do you want to sell at least partially if not at a CCI extreme + 330?

10/16:

Great week, BTC now $ 62.000, close to the record high. Bonds at least stalled, Copper  rose by more than 10 %, Crude at $ 82.48. Only NG disappointed, perfect entry at $ 5.21, up to $ 5.96 but a loser over the week. Excluding the wicks a weekly bearish engulfing. Weekly close above $5.89 is required. The last 3 upper weekly shadows can perhaps tell a story: high - higher - lower. Sometimes, in any time frame and also at a bottom this constellation can hint to a reversal. Tight stop for last week`s remaining position $5.20, a drop down to $ 4.50 isn`t be excluded. YM not far away from a record high, should see some correction and like running - the last few yards ore often the hardest. Exceeding  last week`s high possible.

Cutted Lumbers`s stake by another 20 % at $ 781, s little shy ahead of $ 800.

Talkin` `bout inflation: Crude is beeing traded around the 2015  - 2018 highs, coming from zero has of course an impact. Nevertheless bills for consumers can be expected rising, especially for Natural Gas. Once energy prices have risen, energy utilizing companies are not too excited of reducing the bills during periods of falling prices.

The current matter of concern is a disfunction of the general supply chain  and still the shortage of workers. 

10/10, Last Week`s Recap:

Crude worked well, found support at $ 75 from above to test $80. $ 75 can remain a battleground. Lumber did  even better,  high at $ 748, position cut half at $ 720, now up 50 % from the lows and a little  overbought. NG lost a lot after the huge up spike, sold right in time but  this hasn`t to be the end of the move. Looking for another long entry, eyeing $ 5.20 to increase the stake again. In case of bad luck $ 5.40 has already been the low for the time being. Partially it became Wladimir`s game when he shortened supply to Europe, then opened the tap. Seems that he is using it as an instrument to force  Nordstream 2. Perhaps one could say: "What`s in everybody`s mouth is almost eaten". This may be right for a certain time and one more reason for NG`s plunge,  after skyrocketing it became a main topic in the news.

Copper is catching my attention after a 5 month sideways movement, lower weekly shadows around the daily sma 200 signal interest in buying. Daily higher lows are in place, higher highs are requested. The classical chart analysis would view it as a trend confirming triangle but there are some problems with these patterns as it is like reading coffeeground. Wait, see and act - or stay on the sideline.

NQ is still dealing with 15.000, YM with 34.375. YM`s most traded levels of the prior 200 days are currently 34.682 and 33.718 which are acting like magnets. Indicator based picture improved but within a range it`s an up and down. At least no  drop, the weekly bearish engulfing didn`t have an impact while the FDAX` bearish engulfing (which was clearer) had a follow thru, same with the monthly evening doji star of U.S. T - Bonds but only a little bit so far. Well, there are still 15 days til the end of the month.

NQ  is showing some strength as it rose despite rising interest rates. Will make another record high sooner or later (perhaps later....). The upcoming exercise is defending 14.687 / 705. The spread of the YM versus the NQ shot up which means that investors switched from a risk on to a risk off mode over the prior two weeks. At the end of the day nothing hints to a market crash as there are very few important stocks in a downtrend. It could only be caused by external shocks which can occur everyday anytime or a change by time. Larger pullbacks always welcome.

Bitcoin made another 15 % , trading above the 61.8 % RT and doesn`t have rock resistance. Because of it`s sudden moves it`s hard to predict, it can retreat because of short term overbought condition, move sideways for a couple of days and rise further on towards the record high which are now 20 % to go. The futures contract confirmed the positive 50/200 sma cossover last week.

09/19

What happened over the prior two weeks? Not very much but NG shot up to $ 5.64. Sold another 20 % of the position at resistance $ 5.50.

Bitcoin 24/7 killed the death cross, recovering from an almost 20 % flash crash, daily CCI zeroline reject but has to fight a large bearish engulfing pattern. Resistance is not too strong but can build. Maybe some more sideways action is in the cards.

Silver`s weekly bullish engulfing pattern didn`t have a big follow thru and was followed by a bearish engulfing which led to lower prices. Good shorting opportunity.

YM broke through the recently mentioned former resistance 34.934 (rollover adjusted now around 34.850) which is of course negative. It reversed a few times above the important 34.375 for closing at 34.370, above the low 34.354 on Friday. Fortunately daily ranges increased, there have been days with a range of more than 400  ticks. The average weekly range of the NQ is 363  ticks, almost the same like the average daily range of the YM. It is one of the best instruments for investing but poor for short term trading. Quarterly window dressing ahead, YM`s sma 200 not so very far away. Looking for a false breakout below 34.375, maybe it will be around the 34.277. Last autum`s low was reached at the end of October. Stock Indices became boring because there is a lack of buying and also no reason to plunge yet.

 

09/11: 

20 years ago and I still can`t get the pictures of desperate people jumpimg from the WTC out of my head. In memory of all the victims I don`t comment on the markets.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

09/04: Last Week`s Remarkable Moves

The Hurricane season started with "Ida", damages led to increased demand for construction materials because many U.S. homes are made of wood. Lumber up 20 %, long term target  already written $ 830 or higher.

Natural Gas: New high at $ 4.71, extreme volume could lead to a buying climax. Up 60 % within 2.5 months.

Crude left a monthly bearish evening star, weekly chart doesn`t look too bad but the follow thru of the weekly bullish engulfing ended undecided in a doji, rejected around $ 70. 

Bitcoin`s wild swings have been spectacular, finished the week at a new high of the current move at $ 50.710. Intra day unusually not trending very well.  Just reached the 61.8 % RT $ 51.345 from the top on Saturday 09/04.

Silver hesitated but was up 3 %, mainly on Friday.  A lot of resistance to work off, for the time being just a counterattack.

Copper is open to both directions, still sideways.

Stock indices: The NQ finished most of it`s move on Tuesday, shook off bad news on Friday. Still no signs of a drop but too much volume accumulation around the current high without getting further on can let it drop into a hole in volume. YM`s recovery was somehow poor and it`s not for sure that the work on the downside is already done. Not even a weekly doji. At the end of the day things didn`t change, buyers and sellers keep each other in balance. Nikkei very strong, up 6 %.

09/03

All depending on the non farm payrolls today. The YM could finally make a record high. The problem is - if it is one - that it has built new support areas down between 220 and 270 and there is few resistance remaining as it is drilling into it again and again. But every time it approached  to the latest record high selling came in. So it is just a guessing what will happen after 08:30am if it doesn`t break out before what at least can be doubted, 430 still a magnet. 

Bitcoin likes to irritate and the scenario of a positive daily 50/200 crossover is still in place until proven otherwise. Support 46.300 - 47.000 was firm and let it shoot up above 50.000 which is the current battleground. 

Today is the official end of the summer season in the U.S. and one can probably expect more upcoming volatility, perhaps only after Labor day on Monday. Twenty days average daily range of the YM decreased to a ridiculous 289 ticks, buying a microscope has been helpful.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

09/01 05pm: Seems that some players had to cover short positions, Bitcoin up unpredictable 1400 ticks within one hour, then giving back 1000   from the spike at 49.255,  day`s range: 2740. Early low 46.525, first attack at 48.000 failed.  Crazy.

NQ built two new support areas, usually it wouldn`t come down significantly. Usually.....

09/01:

Bitcoin has been hit hard by a wave of selling yesterday and the rally looks like it`s fading. It will surely try to fight back and chances are given if 47.000 / 46.300 won`t be broken but may be 48.300 - 49.000 are a hard nut to crack now.

NQ´s major target has been 15.625, it can become a battleground, perhaps we have already seen the high of this move for the time being. YM is a dead cat, battle between buyers and sellers.

08/30:

Is it wasted time? The YM`s average weekly range of the prior 8 weeks is 700 ticks, average of 20 days 317 (10 days 366). The average daily range of 20 days Bitcoin is 2070. But it seems that  the BTC and the MBT (Micro Bitcoin Futures) as well don`t fulfill the expectations - especially compared to market capitalization. Things have changed, only a few thousand contracts are being traded everyday and a 5 minute chart is full of gaps which confirms few liquidity. Nevertheless the futures contracts are of some importance for analyzing but trading the cash Bitcoin is currently the better choice.

I´m not expecting it at a 100 % but I won`t be surprised if the stock indices would dive into the "Jackson Hole" this week.

08/28:

Although nothing hints to it, better keep former resistance levels in mind. The YM seems to be on the way to it`s next major target  35.938, the 480 minute chart confirmed the breakout above  resistance 35.120 twice from above while 34.934 in the daily chart is still unchecked.  Short term resistance has to be taken out.

NQ`s 240 minute prior resistance at 15.157 could be checked as well. After a violent breakout like this it might take some time as there is no resistance in uncharted territory.

NG hit another high at 4.38 while Crude also gained 10 % last week but has to fight firm  resistance. Monthly pattern doesn`t look too good so far but there are two days left. In my opinion it dropped too deep to resume it`s  strong up trend very soon. Time will tell.

Bitcoin doesn`t display signs of weakness, not overbought anymore but a negative divergence in the CCI which nevertheless could be of no meaning.  Still remaining above it`s rising 200 days moving average, 50 days moving average rising strongly towards the sma 200 from below. Only a significant drop below the sma 50 (which then has to fall) would confirm the negative "death cross", which is still in place but currently looking like it will be wiped out.

Silver displays a weekly bullish engulfing pattern out of support which could be worth monitoring it.

 

08/20: Done...

08/16

                                                                                                  Bitcoin up almost 60 % within 4 weeks, hovering around the 50 % RT

 

08/12: Yes , the 15.000. A few weeks ago I wrote that it perhaps can be compared to 34.375 in the YM. The cyan line displays the 50 day POC. Will require some time to another record high and has perhaps to dive a little deeper. Advantage YM.

 

08/07

 

    Weekend Report 07/31 - last Edition

A  week full of nothing in the stock indices, Copper,  and Lumber but some larger moves in single stocks due to earnings reports. Comfortable buying the YM around 34.800 like advised in the update and selling higher payed off, shorting around 35.000 or  below as well. If it were up to me, this game could last for some more days. The only disadvantage - it is very time expensive. 

I am drawing trend lines not very often and you could ask why I don`t remove the ones that seem to be unimportant. The charts below let you know why. For the time being nothing hints to a serious drop but selling around the top is serving at least as a brake. Could it be that the mandatory autumn breakdown won`t happen this year and the markets keep on moving sideways? Perhaps, if there will be still enough buyers at lower levels, currently the area around 35.000 is always being sold. During Friday`s last 60 minutes  it has been  struggling with 34.870, the important level for a daily close, a false breakout is possible. In addition as mentioned in an update, I am puzzling over the meaning of rising bond prices.

Crude is looking like it just can`t wait to rise further on but the monthly candle is some kind of locked in. 

Natural Gas was running into a rock of old resistance around $ 4.10, the reason why I sold 50 % of the positions the week before. Down to $ 3.89 until Friday. 

I mailed almost everything you need to know about Bitcoin, as no bearish harami developed I entered another long position but closed it on Friday because of trading over the weekend which could bring a rude awakening on Monday. It reversed 50 ticks below 41.000 exactly at the 38.2 % RT from the top and seems to be waiting for the 60 minutes sma 200 to catch up. After Monday`s spectacular move it returned to business as usual by narrow daily ranges. Volume ran out of steam after Monday. The daily sma 200 is still rising but it`s unsure whether the Bitcoin futures contract can remain above it. The 24/7 sma 200 is at a far away 44.600. A test of the daily sma 50 is expected by some analysts,  this is just a wait and see - so I thought until the  last 60 minutes on Friday when it shot up to 41.400, probably sold too early.

Have a nice weekend!

 

Weekend Report 07/24

This has been commodity`s week. Lumber dropped by  $ 38 to $ 498, peaked at $ 695 to close at $ 634 on Friday.  More than 30 % from the bottom to the top, incredible. It hasn`t to be the end of this reaction, it could run further up to an extreme of $ 830 in the longer run - if it will remain above $ 500. Support below currently around  $ 400 - $ 440.

Natural Gas hit the next high at $ 4.06, up 10 % last week. The United States Natural Gas Fund, introduced on 06/26 is up 23 % by Friday`s close, the leveraged certificate tripled. Well done, boy, 50 % sold.

Copper checked the lower level of the 12 weeks value area at $ 4.19 again and climbed up to  $4.46, closing at $ 4.40. 

Crude  dropped as expected, even down to former resistance at $ 65 (due to contract rollover the all time POC is now located at $ 64.22), finished the week nearly unchanged but gained 10 % from the low. 

As stock indices are making fresh record highs, the topics changed and inflation worries seem to disappear after the markets shook it off. But it could return if commodity prices will resume their up trends. For the time being it seems that these markets will move sideways. As inflation is measured on a year to year base it could slow down. But if I  use the same tools that I am using on intra day, daily and weekly charts there is a very long term target for Crude at  $ 100 and higher by the monthly chart. This is of course hypothetical and may take a long time. If Crude continues rising, inflation is depending on the pace because steadily rising prices don`t have such an impact on inflation. And it`s not only depending on Crude.

So let`s get into details. Last week I wrote that a move sometimes comes out of nowhere. The up move in  Bitcoin didn`t come out of nowhere,  Musk opened his mouth and I don`t complain because it got me almost 2000 ticks by entering a long position. When I mailed the update I didn`t know it yet, just recognizing the bounce off support out of oversold condition at $ 29.500. The Bitcoin also rose 10 % from last week`s low til Friday to $ 32.480, a weekly hammer above support. Now, at 2 pm eastern time on Saturday, it is finally reaching the 24/7 50 days moving average at 34.330, the decreasing triangle is off the table,.

Nevertheless I don`t like Musk`s games, he changed his mind again by announcing one more time that Tesla would accept Bitcoins for payment  - if it would be environmentally friendly. Any reason is is a good reason and people are still following. Being silent after losing his reputation on Twitter he has entered the stage again.  One can expect a joke every week as usual  and moving billions by one comment.

Getting back to Crude, the week`s bar is a hanging man, leaving a long shadow on the downside. Repeating the meaning of this: Sellers pushed the price down but buying was strong enough to keep it up. Like we have seen often in a case like this sellers don`t surrender suddenly, a fundamental reason is also been given to keep on selling. This is just the short term view up to now,  it always took some weeks of sideways movement before the next surge occurred  during this move.

Not much to say about the NQ, it left the 15.000 behind. The YM looks different. A record high just 18 ticks above the latest high and closing 74 ticks below, especially the last 60 minutes on Friday have been weak. The cumulative delta plunged from the opening bell on Friday but it`s like  suicide to follow it during a major uptrend. Whether it will have an impact we will see on Monday. I wouldn`t rule out a drop to 34.800 or below.

Last I am announcing two changes: I decided to lower the monthly fee down to $ 75 because of more readers. Subscription to the Weekend Report only is not being offered anymore.  The second change is that I will remove the 30 days relative strength table. Too much fluctuation occurred, also for this reason I will increase the list of the strongest stocks up to 50  out of the prior three and six months. 

Have a nice weekend!

 

Weak End Report 07/17

What do the YM and the Bitcoin both have in common? They were missing the 35.000 by a few ticks. Another part of the game has been that  the NQ missed the major target 15.00o twice by just four ticks.

 "The Big Short" was right again, Meme stocks melted down. But not only these ones. From Thursday on I was wondering where the record highs came from because many of the important stocks like Nvidia, AMD, Facebook and others gave back most or even  all of their latest gains.  Last week I`ve been stopped out of all positions that I recently bought - with the exception of Juniper Networks which are also on the edge. , SLM Solutions have been a one day miracle, then dropping below the sma 200 on Friday.  Although Juniper signed a big deal it`s under fire from hedgefunds so I better take care,  think it will also be stopped next week. Favorites are currently changing fast, this is only a buy - and hold market if you bought more conservative stocks at lower prices, but even Alcoa got hammered. On the other hand Google, Microsoft and Apple are looking stable but will plunge as well if  index futures are getting under pressure.

Quarterly earnings are rolling in, there are keen average estimatings of  improving by 60 %, UBS even says up to  80 %. What if.....?

"False breakouts are often followed by fast moves". Will that become true? It depends, if you include  the wicks, there has been no false breakout in the YM, it just failed to break out of the range and as the state of the art I would consider it confirming the range. By using  the bar close method it could have been a false breakout, especially in case that the YM doesn`t manage to close above 34.750 - 800  on a daily base again. If you look at the weekly  charts, the patterns are of course neagtive  (bearish engulfing) but not spectacular. What should make one think about is that  the drop happened on a Friday after releasing improved retail sales numbers. The media always needs a reason and so they argue that it has been caused by renewed inflation fears, driven by  Janet Yellen`s comments, but it seems to me they didn`t read the entire speech. At the moment this is absurd, Crude had the second consecutive losing week, Lumber lost more than 60 % within a few weeks (adjusted down from $1629 to $ 536) , Copper doesn`t move at all and long term bonds marked their highest reading for weeks. But it`s a matter of fact that the markets dropped on good news, which is bad news. We have to wait for getting a clearer picture. If the markets start to panic, we don`t need to talk about supports. If not, down to 33.000 the YM is remainig in it`s current 3.5 months range. For the time being it`doesn`t make sense to look too far ahead as we don`t know what will be the result of this Friday. 

After Crude`s drop from above 76.26 it attacked the major $ 75  level but has been rejected as well when suddenly enough supply has been announced. The weekly pattern doesn`t look very promising but as  mentioned, a pullbak to 68.33 would be quite usual. Levels have to be adjusted sligtly because of the rollover into the 09 - 21 contract. 

Natural Gas stalls as it is riding on  the back of Crude. 

The Bitcoin did nothing of what I expected, a weekly up gap has been killed from below 35.000 and mounted into another losing week. Neither the daily CCI came closer to the zero line nor the daily 24/7 sma 50 has been touched, the weekly CCi went into negative territory for the first time but only at - 1.42.  It`s looking hopeless but you`ll never know, sometimes an unexpected move comes out of nowhere. By Friday`s close sellers are still in control but it left a daily doji and will be interesting to see how it`s going on. One can guess whether there is a negative correlation to the stock markets. On Friday stock markets dropped two hours after the Bitcoin made it`s low. I am watching this for a longer period and my conclusion is: Sometimes yes, sometimes no.

A contrarian buy of Lumber could be considered if there are signs of a short term stabilization, perhaps it has to go down to  $ 400  or even the 61.8 % RT at $ 388. A gain of at least 20 % shouldn`t be impossible.

 

Have a nice weekend and a successful week!

 

Weekend Report 07/10

The NQ did what it should do, exceeded the minor target but didn`t reach 15.000. Some work of around 100 ticks still undone.

"The Day After" the Fed is often special. After building additional resistance, the YM dropped and bounced off the monthly pivot point almost faster by 750 ticks. The long wick in the weekly chart could make it vulnerable for another pullpack, this is a may-be, not a must. But there`s a reason why a hammer at a top is called a hanging man.

The daily pattern seems to demand a higher high. Nevertheless, take care of gaping down on Monday or a bearish reversal between 34.800 -900. By Friday`s close I can`t find the hair in the soup, double bottom  at the prior week`s low, new record high based on the daily and weekly close. Although it could be driven by a short squeeze,  a weak market looks different. Of course one day it will change  but we will try to stay in the saddle as long as the bull doesn`t shake us off. Repetion: Buy the dips and don`t forget to sell......

A notebale 8 % correction within two days in Crude as the first attack on 76.26 failed.  It will  probably ride some more attacks but remember the 65 $, it plunged from a peak at 68 to 57 $. The difference is that Crude is now on top of the long term volume mountain, so it`s got fewer resistance than at the 65 $ level. Well, selling can come in, resistance can build up, for the time being there`s nothing unusal as it closed above 74 $.Natural Gas has been a nothing, ending up in weekly highwave candle.

Copper seems to have resumed it`s uptrend, weekly close  at 4.34 $. A strong week for long term bonds, the 30 year U.S T - Bonds closed above 162.00 Where are the inflation fears if they are not being  expressed in long term fixed income securities? Nobody knows, perhaps they will return. Lumber still poor.

The Bitcoin has been sold from Monday on as it dropped from the prior week`s upper shadow but bounced off the lows. The recently mentioned "death cross" has already happened in the 24/7 chart at around 43.000. The thing is that prices are often returning to such moving average crossovers points.  The most traded level (POC) of the prior 12 weeks is currently located at around 35.200.  When trading intraday one can often watch that it is a sign of weakness if the lower level of the value area doesn`t rise and is remaining at the latest low. This can change by more volume accumulation but it can drop further as well. Even the 24/7 daily CCI didn`t reach the zeroline yet, so I`m not expecting another drop before they meet, perhaps in conjunction with  the daily sma 50, which hasn`t already been touched in the 24/7 chart (35.600), this could happen over the weekend.

I could have saved my words on this boring range with drecreasing daily ranges but wanted to give some raw hints for the ones who are trading it short term. 

Why didn`t I buy Apple when I had a clue that it would rise? I can`t tell you and am asking myself. Nobody`s perfect as you see above. But one thing is for sure, I won`t buy Natural Gas Services Group again, stocks like these drive me crazy.

 

Have a nice weekend!

 

Weekend Report 07/03

An astonishing week, the first one without a double digit loser out of 340 stocks and a couple of double digit winners. Notable, some of the big names established itself among the strongest stocks of the prior 30 days like Nvidia, Adobe, Microsoft, AMD, Seagate Technology, Eli Lilly, Nike and Apple. No miracle that the Nasdaq 100 made another record high, the next major target is 15.000 while the S&P 500 is additional driven by oil companies. NQ`s 161.8 % extension of the latest range at 14.748 just a few ticks away.

Perhaps you have seen it, I  removed the menu "Major Stocks Important Levels". This work takes too much time and as I recently mentioned, you can do it on your own for the stocks you are interested in. 

I have written about the monthly pivot point as a magnet and the statistics  allows the conclusion that an estimated 80 % (perhaps even more) of the stocks will run back to the pivot point during the month (many already did), so we will probably have some setbacks of the strong gainers and a recovery of the losers. That`s almost all about the stock markets, only the YM has to wipe out resistance. By Friday`s close it displays exactly a double top which has to be taken out. The 60 minutes YM is around 500 ticks above it`s sma 200, so perhaps time for a breather and an approximation. Ahead of Memorial Day I thought that there won`t happen much but it`s got  a lot of movement on that shortened trading day. The 4th of July is independence day in the U.S, this time the holiday is delayed to Monday.

Bonds didn`t drop further, the Bund Future even built a monthly morning doji star and left a strong weekly candle.

In Copper there is a "what comes first?  - constellation. It closed within the twelve weeks value area with a doji but didn`t touch support around 4.05 $ yet. The prior week`s pattern could be a (maybe short lived) key reversal on high volume, if it can stay above 4.20 $ there is a chance that the uptrend can be resumed. No clear picture.

Beside the biotechs the energy sector has been a winner again. Natural Gas surged to 3.80 $ on very high volume and closed at 3.70 $. Daily CCI is overbought at +284 so that  a pullback could be possible.  Crude exceeded the major target at 75 $. By looking at the monthly chart you recognize the meaning of 76.26 $ which has been sold heavily almost three years ago. As it is a monthly chart there can happen a lot, but a re -test of the former resistance level 68.33 $ would be quite normal and is just a 10 % drop from now.

Bitcoin - at first the positive: It made a lower low on decreasing volume, reversed around the 61.8 % RT from the bottom and left another intra day support rectangle, one of the possibilities I didn`t rule out a few weeks ago. By Friday`s close the weekly CCI made a zero line reject. What it`s worth we don`t know yet but the daily CCI should finally reach the zero line. The Bitcoin is currently trading below it`s 200 days sma but the sma is still rising. The negative sight is the unfilled weekly gap around 25.000 - 25.500 which is unvoluminized as well. A weekly inverted hammer indicates that sellers are still in control. At the end of the day we don`t know nothing and have to wait, the daily sma 50 is yet to arrive. Very often it comes to a decision after 2 - 2.5 months of  sideways movement.

Tourism stocks are a misery as the covid delta variant dragged it down again but  this will  also be survived at some point, for this reason they might offer buying opportunities again. 

Happy holiday! 

Weekend Report 06/26

What a perfect match in the YM, the gap filled and a 4 % gain. Unlike the NQ, there is still resistance above. Well, what caught my attention most is the weekly bearish engulfing pattern in the U.S. T- Bonds. Will the downward trend resume again? The pattern requires confirmation and there are voices speaking of an upcoming crash caused by the Bitcoin, what I doubt.

Crude  doesn`t have serious resistance but is ripe for a correction, Lumber still free falling, Three positive weeks let Natural Gas touch 3.50 $ and a weekly close above the one of 02/17. Seems the train is rolling

What about the Bitcoin? The only positive thing happened on Tuesday when a false breakout to the downside has been followed by a fast recovery of more than 10 %, leaving a kind of a daily hammer on high volume, but the follow thru was poor more or less. It could have been another selling climax but the weekly bar is negative like the prior week`s one. 30.000 or nothing..... you see the unfilled weekly gap at around 25.500 $. After Musk fortunately went silent now it`s the chinese. Of course it`s a thorn in the eye of the communists but they will loose the fight cause miners are already moving to other countries.

I want to come back to Cathie Wood whose funds have been very successfull during the first couple of months in 2021, then weakened. This is not about religion, but she is a strong believing christian and I would rather lend my my ears  to her than to the giant sharks on Wall Street who dominate the game.

Somebody detected a head and shoulder pattern in the Bitcoin. What is it worth? Absolutely nothing. Hopefully he didn`t waste sheets of paper. H+S patterns are the most failed patterns at all and are only looking good if they are finished. Either you are positioned short ahead of an expected decline but selling a broken potential neckline is a dangerous game. I don`t want to rule out that this guy could be right at the end of the day, but honestly, is it helpful anyway? I could  show you perfect  H+S patterns with measured targets below zero.

If you didn`t make any money by trading or investing last week please message me your account number....

Have a nice Sunday.

 

 

Weekend Report 6/19

 

This makes the difference: The YM has got simply too far ahead and may probably do the long awaited weekly gap filling around 33.000. (or fooling you by reversing above). Anyway, the behavior at an important gap requires attention. It`s early but the upcoming quarterly window dressing will offer a buying opportunity within the next couple of days. Yes, the NQ made a record high but selling pressed it down so that there is a undecided weekly highwave candle (or call it a doji) left, measured by the weekly close only a few ticks above the former all time high. 

In order to respond to my comment from 05/15, it's not that I want to point out that I have been right but the old wisdome "sell on good news"  (inflation fears.....) became true again.

Lumber lost 50 % within six weeks, leaving two weekly down gaps. The comparison with the Bitcoin was rather coincidental but the result almost the same while Copper lost "only"  20 %.

I was writing about imbalances  which have unfolded right now. Long term bonds are rising (buy on bad news...), Gold and the Euro dropped, what was  overdue because of the surge in Crude. 

Crude hit the first upper targets last week and short term resistance has to build for a pullback. Oil Inventories have been good news for Crude.

So the same story: Not everything can rise for a longer period  as not everything will drop. 

The Bitcoin left a weekly bearish engulfing pattern, which is neagtive at first sight but with limited expressiveness within a range. At least no positive weekly bar and still failing to exceed the 23.8 % RT from the top. The so called "death cross" is the crossover of the 50 and 200 periods moving averages.

Some funny things happended in stocks. When I mentioned AMC Entertainment around 10 $ on 01/05 I warned of "high risk". Yes, high risk of making a 200, 300 or 500% gain.....Unfortunately I sold the wrong one, while AMC was rising I thought the same would happen to Big5 Sporting goods, a long term favorite. It spiked up to 36 $, I forgot to sell and sold partial at 29 $. Didn`t make the same mistake when RH Inc. shot up, the stock lost 10 % after selling partial. It`s my strategy for the time being: I am selling on every overdone up spike, not worrying about what comes next. Some postions have been executed by stops: Activision Blizzard, Apa Corp. and Paysafe. 

Apple is crawling on quiet feet, after all gaining 5 %. It`s called dead money by the media because it doesn`t move much.. Everything can change......

Regards from Spain!

 

Weekend Report 6/12

 

Weekend Report 06/12

 

Sorry, but I cannot withhold the joke of the week from you. Somebody announced an earthquake after it happened. Surely nobody knows whether the Bitcoin will drop further but releasing this after a loss of more than 50 % can`t be considered serious. Star Investor Cathie Wood is predicting a long term target of 500.000 $ for the Bitcoin. As is so often the case, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

The screenshots in the middle contain a true message: The all time record high of Americans who quit their jobs. In the meantime there is a shortage of workers in the U.S. which will lead to higher wages, fires inflation but on the other hand it enables and demands more consumer spending. It turned into the opposite as supposed just a short time ago. Well, may be it cancels each other out, who knows. Astonishingly long term bonds  are still rising. 

The S& P 500 hit a record high last week, also caused by the increased proportion of oil companies, which rose from 2 % to 3 % by the rising price of Crude. 

Fast money could me made by shorting the YM. The ones who took note of my update and shorted the up spike around 34.710 in the YM on Thursday could cash in more than 250 ticks within 65 Minutes, even the second leg down let it drop by a 140 ticks after a rebound of 150 and another 210 ticks down within 60 minutes on Friday. Not too bad for a currently lame vehicle. Friday has been rollover day for the index futures contracts, so that the YM 09-21  is currently trading around 100 ticks lower than the expired 06-21 while there is nearly no difference in the NQ..

The NQ is now missing a few ticks to a record high, leaving a strong weekly candle and few resistance above. It has to exceed 14.037 by a weekly close. The YM left a weekly bearish engulfing and is diving into support, the monthly PP is located at 34.104, due to the rollover. Upper daily wicks are still indicating selling pressure at higher levels. Things changed, now the way for the NQ looks much more easy than for the YM. Perhaps 13.808 will be checked from above, major support in volume around 13.680 - 13.710. Especially the YM´s cumulative delta volume is plunging but -  like always  - let prices talk.

As I will go on vacation from Monday on there won`t be any updates during the upcoming weeks. I think this is understandable after sitting at the desk most of the time during the past 15  months.

The major developments occurred in Lumber and Crude. It`s not the first time during this spectacular up move that Lumber lost a lot, but now almost 40 % within five weeks and a large weekly down gap. This time it looks like it has peaked for the time being. I call it "leaving no traces" (no support areas) if a market is skyrocketing without a break. The difference to the Bitcoin is that the Bitcoin isn`t urgently needed but commodities are required for daily goods and the industry. Anyway, every trend comes to an end or stalls at least one day.

Crude is trading above 70 $, next target 71.88 $  / 72.34 $ and it could go up to 75 $ (which would be the next major target) or higher. Natural Gas followed by an increase of  5 % last week Although it`s up 35 % this year it seems to be be quite a good chance in the long run. Looks like it will have a follow thru  next week. There are speculative long certificates with a factor two or seven (which rose 50 % from Thursday to Friday`s high for giving back 10 % until the close).

Recently I wrote that the Bitcoin perhaps needs at least one more lower weekly shadow. This happened last week by leaving a hammer. It has been the third consecutive weekly range that  closed above the opening price. So the most important level on the downside for the weekly chart is still 30.500, a weekly close above 39.755 is required for freeing it out of the current range. 

Very strong moves in stocks occurred which can be considered speculative excesses again while many of the major stocks appear to be currently maxed out. Nevertheless Eli Lilly shot up  surprisingly last week.  Well, which stocks keep afloat the boat doesn`t matter but like mentioned last week, the choice became difficult and you have to be ready to sell at once if there a signs of weakness and a stock doesn`t move in the right direction. These fast movers are very volatile and some spikes are short lived. I must admit that I didn`t follow my own plan when I wrote a couple of weeks ago that the renewable energy sector would be the next profitable investment and so missed a lot. That`s the way it is, you can`t have your eyes everywhere. If it has been the right time for a renewed long term investment - time will tell, but unfortunately this big chance has passed by.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General topics of trading.

First the importance of a few, sometimes only one tick.  I am starting with the phenomenon I recently mentioned: The market reverses a few ticks above or below key levels. Of course the definition of a key level is subjective and every trader is using different tools. For many years I am using the same indicators which have proven itself, automatically drawn by indicators. We have to distinguish between areas and levels. For example, the levels of value areas are fix for a certain period ( changing depending on volume) but not firm so that one is more talking about areas. Other ones are fix levels which I mention separately when writing updates. Although I`m trading for a couple of years there is always something new to discover. To come back to the introduction, I recognized that missed key levels are being exceeded or undercut during  the next attack to close above or below it again. The explanation is that for example traders who entered a long position above key levels put their stops a few ticks below, triggered stops lead to liquidating positions which  results in a strengthening of the trend until buyers step in again und try to pull prices above key levels again which most often succeds.

At this point I want to clarify that you can download and use Ninjatrader with end of day data for free. I recommend using NT7 instead of NT8 which is poor in my eyes, so I will stick to NT 7 although there is no further development. The existing stuff is more than enough  and gives you a lot of advantages.

Those who don`t use Ninjatrader don`t have to read the following. It leads to the point which is related to the importance of sometimes only one tick and I ask you not to get this wrong. I don`t need to earn my money by selling indicators, I think  you know that my intention is to support traders and investors. But of course I want to gain some recognition for the time and  the money I spend. I got in touch with a guy from the U.S., Ben,  who could implement my ideas of creating a gap detection indicator and I am impressed by the results after using it for two  weeks now. Before I tell a lot please have a look at the charts under the "Offers"menu. It works on any time frame and will give you some different insights. For further details please write in. I promise you, this one is unique. Before I contacted  Ben I have been searching for an indicator like this on the internet in vain and found only a simple one for 697 $ which isn`t worth the money.

Another indicator (or better call it a plot) is the iw Fibonaccis on session (currently intra day only). It became a basic tool of my trading as I created a strategy based on the Fibonacci extensions of certain time periods, not trading ranges. I bought it years ago from Ben`s company and it works pretty good if you know which periods to choose. After studying the charts you might ask why there some rounded up Fibonacci levels in use. The explanation is simple, based on my experiences: many traders are entering or exiting positions at Fibonacci levels and there is stop fishing as well. So for example I rounded up the 138.2 % extension to 139.00 %, the 161.80 % to 162.00 %, 261.8 % to 262 % and the 377 % to 386 %, which often mark nearly exact reversal levels or where a pullback is starting. 

Last but not least I mention the MZ pack which I also bought, an all-encompassing indicator for displaying market depth, big trades, order flow, footprint and various other features. Real great stuff  from Russia and worth much more than it`s price. Just an example: unfilled orders don`t disappear and you always know where even far away large orders are located, which is important because they act like magnets. Traders who want to get crazy  can get a volume ladder indicator from me for free.

 

Have a great weekend!

 

 

Weekend Report 6/05

Last week has been dominated by the energy sector. Crude reached a record high of the current move and there is  only resistance from the monthly chart`s levels. Of course this doesn`t mean that it will shoot further up because at some point supply will meet demand and speculators will sell. For the time being no more short term resistance but pullbacks possible like always. The renewable energies had the third consecutive strong week, Natural Gas rose as well. 

The Dax has been the only major index that hit a record high and closed nearly at week`s high. The NQ did it`s job fast with the mandatory overshooting, checking 13.588 and 13.522 for a weekly close at 13.766 and above the twelve weeks POC 13.727. The daily chart is still displaying resistance from 13.8o0 on. The YM reversed exactly at the upper level of the 50 days value area 34.400 and did not materialize the down spike to the monthly PP at 34.211 in spite of the mixed non farm payrolls numbers. Notable that it hold steadily on Friday and the up spike hasn`t been sold. As it is just the beginning of the month, it still can happen. The only fix resistance levels beside the pivot pivot points are 34.828 and 34.920 but surely there will be pullbacks before targeting a new record high which isn`t for sure yet. Next major target would be 35.156 which can be compared to the 34.375 level. Statisticly we are not in the weakest average period out of 25 years as you can see above. But uncertainties caused by the imbalances are remaining. So far, so good, no signs of a trend reversal  in the indices but the continued negative divergence in the cumulative delta volume which has so far shown no effect. For the Bitcoin it announced the plunge early but it can`t really be compared because the Bitcoin has been absolutely overheated and repeating, the not exceeded island reversal left a dark cloud.

Other markets: Copper sideways for five weeks, Lumber`s bearish engulfing pattern had a follow thru, closed above the the twelve weeks POC 1215 $ at 1284 $ with a doji. Lowest weekly close for six weeks, undecided. U. S. T- Bonds closed at 159.02, the highest weekly close since the first week of March but still sideways til 161.00, the Bund Future seems to stabilize. 

The Bitcoin built a higher high and a higher low, again a weekly upper wick is indicating selling pressure, but this week`s bar left a short wick on the downside as well. Currently the speculative money is turning to somewhere else, the average daily range fell from 4000 / 4500 to 3000 ( ten days) and 3700 (twenty days) and even 2400 on Friday. Few interest for the time being, maybe Monday til Wednesday will help to clarify as the 24/7 chart ist about to break it`s  trend line to the downside. Well, it can resist as the the daily SMA 200 is still serving as support. Even in the case of a broken trend line a flatter up trend could develop. It doesn`t happen very often that  so many extremely different opinions are expressed. 

That`s all for this weekend, I know, a little bit poor as I am only repeating what happened. Last weekend`s forecasts and probabilities worked quite good, unfortunately this time there is almost nothing to write. 

Nevertheless, some surprises will always happen. Have a nice Sunday!

 

Weekend Report 05/29

 

It`s not the record high, it`s the pace (or speed).  Somehow this sounds familiar, known from former crises. Currently it is just a headline but an unhealthy development. It can`t be predicted what will be the result of it but surely it will have an impact, I think at first on consumer spending which is already reflected by the latest numbers of consumer confidence. In a worst case scenario it could trigger a chain reaction but last week the markets shook it off. House owners get more money if they sell but they have to live somewhere so that at the end of the day it is only an advantage for real estate investors. This seduces to more speculation and could end up in a bubble again.

Nevertheless demand for cars is huge  but millions of almost finished cars can`t be delivered because of the shortage in semiconductors, especially  the most wanted Ford F 150 pickup can`t be delivered so car makers start to reduce electronic equipment for satisfying the demand. I am wondering why stocks of semiconductor producers don`t go through the ceiling. Even car rentals can`t meet the demand for cars, which in my opinion is a consequence of too less available cars. 

The big picture doesn`t match at all. Long term bonds seem to bottom out, Copper,  Crude and Gold are trying to hit new highs, the Euro is strong against the USD. Usually high demand for Crude lets the USD rise but now it`s the opposite. Many of the important tech stocks don`t move very much for months but there are speculative excesses is stocks like AMC Entertainment, Big5 Sporting Goods, Virgin Galactics and the bombed out renewable energy sector which recovered over the prior two weeks. Anyway, the stock indices are still looking healthy and there are no signs of a breakdown, it seems to me that the dropping Bitcoin lets  money flow into speculative stocks. 

Markets: By looking at the monthly chart I recognized that the Nikkei closed a monthly up gap during last week but left a long wick. I think in the meantime you know the story of long wicks. 

For the YM the way to a record high looked easy but selling from 34.620 on Friday spoiled the chance at least temporarily. Perhaps because of the holiday on Monday many players closed their books early. A daily doji is left but the weekly candle is strong. Gaping down on Monday and remaining below the gap would be negative and could lead to an evening doji star. It requires heavy selling to push prices significantly down through the support in volume as the YM just broke out of it`s 50 days value area. With thin trading volume on Memorial Day it is supposed that won`t happen much. Intraday cumulative delta volume is flat.

The weekly NQ built a morning doji star but still has resistance around 13.800 - 900 and some unchecked former resistance levels on the downside. Nearly, it missed the 588 by 16 ticks like the YM missed 34.150 by 20 ticks. Somebody wrote about fooling traders last week.

Crude`s popgun has been ignited to the upside and my negative sight has been completely wrong. It reversed at the twelve weeks POC and seems to be headed for a higher high next week. We will see whether there is enough buying power to push away the few short term resistance.

Copper made the expected lower low  by only a few ticks to reverse and closed above the twelve weeks value area again. The weekly chart is showing resistance from 4.95 $ on but it can move sideways as well. 

Weekly Lumber is  a bearish engulfing pattern and closed below the twelve weeks value area upper level 1400 $ at 1309$. Maybe it`s just to check the wick of the hammer. It came down from on extreme overbought weekly CCI of 240 to 163.

The Bitcoin tried to get above 40.700, failed to exceed the 23.8 % RT from the top significantly and left a weekly inverted hammer. At least no lower weekly low but sellers are still in control. Locked in between 30.500 and 40.700. It opened gap down on Monday, exceeded the gap and closed unchanged at the prior week`s close. Wait and see, due to trading over the weekend there can`t be drawn any conclusions. 

The weekly CCI has peaked in January at a never seen  +450 and is moving towards the zero line, closing at  +29.  The only straight break through the zero line happened in March of 2020 , didn`t come out of overbought territory, lasted two months and checked the 7340 $ bottom ( futures contracts deviate from cash prices) by three weekly shadows. The prior week`s bar has got a wick on the downside, probably it requires at least one more to get buyers back in control. To remember, 29.285 is the 61.8 % Fibonacci RT of the entire up move. Levels deviate slightly over time because there is a rollover every month.

For a couple of days now I am trading the Bitcoin micro futures but it is not really satisfying yet. Although there is more volume than in the BTC (large Bitcoin contract) sometimes there are no quotes for  seconds and sudden moves appear. There are also notable deviations from the BTC even within 5 minute bars. For this reason I am using a 5 Renko chart. At the end of the day it doesn`t matter as long as it is trending very well and the current daily range is remaining at around 4000 ticks. I just opened an account at FXCM Brokerage where the Bitcoin cash seems to be very liquid and does have a smaller spread. I will report on my experience.

I did some more selling  last week and didn`t buy any stocks for longer term investments. Nordstrom looked weak before it published earnings, closing the position ahead of it was quite good, selling out AMC Entertainment and Holdaycheck AG. has been too early. Won`t sell the rest of Big5 very soon because it`s at an all time high, unlike AMC ( dropped more than 30 % intraday on Friday). Seattle Genetics is at the edge, I set a stop at entry for the remaining position. Perhaps it will be stopped unfavorable but this is better than sitting on a loss. Closed the position in Juniper Networks for a small gain, put the stop for Activision Blizzard at entry. Will try to get rid of Cinemark Holdings at a higher price, it has turned into a loser.

I put Apple on the watch list, the chart is looking like Facebook`s chart a few months ago, there is noticeable activity in the stock. Maybe it will take some time but the chances for an increase aren`t too bad. Of course this would lift up the Nasdaq 100.

Finally Natural Gas attracted my attention, it came down from 14 $ in 2007 to 2.36 $ in December and could build a bottom. Currently at 2.98 $ and mountains of volume above.

I have been discussing with some other traders about filtering stocks and came to the decision to remove the table of trend strength. There is too much confusion... (Bob Dylan). The target is to simplify the whole thing and make it time saving. As a result, there is an extended table of 50 out of 300 stocks with the highest relative strength of one month. Of course now there are a lot of stocks that don`t have been listed before but you will see them come and go. Secondly I picked up the idea of the monthly pivot point which I already mentioned and will  put it into practice over the next couple of days. You will find it by looking at the Major Stocks Important Levels menu. First impression: I wouldn`t  have bought Tesla, opened slightly below the PP and dropped from 706 $ to 547 $. Fortunately the stop avoided a huge loss.  By the way: Removed the stock from the watchlist for personal reasons, same with Amazon.

Have a nice holiday and a great week!

Weekend Report 05/22

What an amazing week. Market breadth caught my attention from Wednesday on and couldn`t be overseen on Friday.  Clearly spoken: There are only few strong up trends  among the major stocks, my measured trend strength fell from 102 to 80. Not notable, but without  BIG5 and AMC Entertainment it`s only at 66, this is poor for  markets near all time highs and flashes an alert from this point of view. Many of the largest winners have been the tattered stocks in downtrends which regained parts of their heavy losses. On the other hand most major stocks are still moving sideways, waiting for the daily sma 200 or fell below it more or less. So far the facts which are worth taking note of but like everything this can change.  Conclusion: Most long term trends still intact but lacking dynamics.  Nvidia has been one of the exceptions as it gained 10 % within 3 days, breaking out of the value area and leaving two daily gaps. 

I continued partial selling or sold out last week to be on the safe side and getting rid of  stocks that don`t move. The YM reversed upwards at 33.402, ok, but missed the 34.375 by three ticks on Friday. Sometimes a market is turning just a few ticks above or below key levels and enjoys fooling traders. Well, the 33.400 is measured manually and does not matter as the exact number but 34.475 is a fixed level  that I mentioned weeks before the YM shot through it. Long wicks are telling that there is still interest in buying at lower levels but not enough power to push prices further up when heavy selling starts, so it is a tough thing. As long as the FAANG stocks hold steadily, the Nasdaq 100 hesitates to plunge seriously and we have these stocks as the major indication of the Nasdaq`s real internal strength. It is becoming more difficult to find the right stocks for investing that will rise further on in these lofty heights if one doesn`t own it yet. Buying single stocks is again containing  larger risk and one day you have to sell for not being trapped by the next market decline, which is  a matter of time. Indices may rise further up, but I repeat it explicitly: Partial sales are getting you out of the danger zone and you can sell the rest for zero if the market implodes.  What can one expect after the very strong past months? Buy the dips, don`t forget to sell and don`t be angry of some missed bucks, capital protection is more important now, also having enough cash ready for the next big chance. Strong buying around record highs is definitely not a big chance and a bad risk / reward ratio. Pretty sure that I am not the only one thinking like that.

Other markets: Right in time when inflation fears ( what do we have to fear?) increased, it became a topic on TV and and as if on command commodity prices dropped. As you could read last week, I had a clue somehow. The worst chart is the one of crude oil which left a weekly popgun, a monthly low below 57 $ would also build a monthly popgun.  It might not be the kind of popgun that the purists detect but this chart is telling  something. For the time being just a note aside as there is strong support but it won`t be the first time that crude collapses suddenly. This is not a prediction but a possibility. 

Lumber came down from 1726 $ to 1210 $ and finished the week by a hammer, closing at 1453 $.  Copper dropped from4.88 $  to close at week`s low 4.48. $

Shattered dreams of the Bitcoin.  My wish of a drop to 40.000 and below has been fulfilled almost faster than I could write, the violence left a lot of damage. The counterattack was strong but  lost momentum and the Bitcoin dropped  15 % on Friday. This can`t be manipulated to an upper island reversal. If you have a look at the weekly chart, there are no strong support areas, only a large resistance rectangle from 60.200 to the top. Four former resistance lines which had been taken out can serve as support now.  39.670, undercut by last week`s close,  30.415 from where it reversed to around 42.000  is still valid as the 240 minutes has built a support rectangle. The next lower levels are at 21.400 and 19.363.  The prior collapse led to a loss of 75 %, if this will repeat, 16.400 is the target. I don`t really believe in this, but the upper level of the all time value area is currently located at 15.300 and we are not trading out of believings. Serious buyers welcome this chance of buying at a discount of 50 % or more after six weeks. The Eretheum crashed as well, you readers have been warned right in time.

Until the prior week I got dozens of mails, offering big chances in any of the well known or undiscovered Crypto Currencies. Yeah, Bitcoin, forget it, this one is even better and will beat it all!! Got none of this kind last week, shouters went silent.

It can be watched in a couple of skyrocketing assets, they don`t leave support areas like slowly rising markets.  In fact this is the second weekly down gap and the 61.8  % RT from the low of 7000 $ can be found at 29.285. Probably looking too far ahead as there are other possibilities  as long as the daily sma 200 resists the attack. What can happen? It can move sideways until the 60 minutes sma 200 reaches the price (or vice versa) and form an inside bar, meaning that next week`s bar is embraced by last week`s bar. For keeping this chance it has to open above last week`s low, doesn`t undercut it and close above the opening price (read about bullish inside bars). Next possibility is another drop on lower volume. Last week brought up the largest down volume ever in the Bitcoin futures contracts and indeed there are chances that we have seen the low last week but I wouldn`t bet on it right now. Last possibility a lower daily low taking out last week`s low (lower, low, low.....I know) with a close above last week`s close, a key reversal. Still very weak cumulative delta volume below it`s moving average. Apart from trading intra day I am still sitting on hands.

Funny Pentecost!

05/19:  Nice gift! First try peanuts, second try  the big one, selling  climax. Should built a higher low.

Weekend Report 05/15

Buying on bad news payed off by more than 1200 points in the Dow Jones and reached the first major target at 34.375 again on Friday. After the largest losing day since March the largest winner since March. Crazy, I shouldn`t write about days anymore, only hours.... If volatility appears, you can calculate whatever you want, the market is exaggerating before it has balanced out. A pretty good week for trading and some big winners in stocks. Time for me to clean up, I started selling the week before and sold more last week to lock in profits, filled stop orders and removed potential dead money, adding only a handful of stocks. By looking at the charts Seattle Genetics caught my attention. Looks like building a bottom in volume like Humana a few weeks a, two months sideways range. Could retreat to 136.80 or breakout to the upside. Tight stop 134 $, will watch the intra day chart.

The NQ reversed at the lower level of the 50 days value area 12.970 which I think I had mentioned in one of my updates.  Especially the weekly FDAX left a long wick again, but as it is the second one it is challenged to built a new all time high soon. Staying above 15.166, it should be possible, diving below would confirm a wider range.

Now that the devil is out we have to see what`s gonna happen. Inflation at current levels is no danger as it is well under control and reached the EZB`s long term target by April`s numbers.  Now you know who is buying all that crude oil.....Of some concern is the shortage in commodities, goods like semiconductors (Daimler had to interrupt it`s car production) and prices of food. Corn is becoming very important as it is shooting up for weeks. Mentioned   in Thursday`s update, the new god is on earth and in the meantime his name is annoying me. Tesla will accept Bitcoin for buying cars, Bitcoin rose, he withdrew, Bitcoin plunged 15 %, dogecoin dropped when he called it a hustle, on Friday it rose 43 %. Take care that you`re not on Musk`s list. I refrain from writing more about my thoughts.

So what about the Bitcoin: In a former Weekend Report I wrote that sometimes it`s a matter of order. This happened again in the weekly chart of the Bitcoin. There are constellations at a high probability and the only question to answer is: What comes first? In most cases an existing trend will be continued but the enemy hasn`t surrendered yet. The weekly candle of 04/23 cried for a lower low, followed by a counterattack bar,  demanding a higher high which  occurred the following week, last week it undercut the weekly candle`s low of 04/23. Again it has built a weekly evening star. The prior three week`s lows have all been around 47.500 and as I recognized, major patterns in the Bitcoin fail often. If we add an island reversal and an  evening star it is absolutely negative but the Bitcoin has to drop further to reverse into a downtrend ( better say bull flag).  Down to 45.000, the  range widens. Hopefully it will drop further on to 40.000 or below, you know that I am long term bullish on the Bitcoin.

Lumber displays the first bad weekly candle since September 2020.  Here we can ask: Sell on good news? Inflation and shortages are good news for commodities, Copper reached 4.90, leaving a weekly key reversal.  A real trend reversal can`t be seen yet. When the crowd becomes attentive, the professionals start selling by small steps without making any noise.

Crude did a step forward as it closed at 65.37 and the most traded level went down to 64.69 from 65 $. The battle could be continued.

The Bund Future closed at the lowest level since March 2020 (weekly close) but above the next support area from 167.05 - 168.53. Apart from a short up spike to 160 U.S. T Bonds are sleepy., moving around 156.00

Have a nice weekend !

Update 05/13

The simple question "who`s gonna drop next" got a fast response from late Monday on: Everything. The Bitcoin even collapsed. Like in the prior week,  all marched together, more or less. On 02/27 I first wrote about rising interest rates, now inflation is in everybody`s mouth. So what? The facts are out and we have to  return to "business als usual ". Buy on bad "news"?  YES! Hopefully it will  lead into a larger correction after the overdone up spike to 35.000, from where large investors have been dumping stocks. Also written months ago, they will enter at lower prices again. The song remains the same. Now there`s the constellation of a daily SM 20 turning negative. 50 days moving average in sight, an open weekly gap which hopefully will be filled. Doesn`t matter how deep it will dive, the players on Wall Street  are celebrating their profits and are unpacking their binoculars. Markets might need a couple of  days to face and accept reality. The cumulative delta volume is rising  since Wednesday afternoon. Plunging on a rising CD is the best that can happen. The FAANG - stocks didn`t sell off heavily.  Jeff Bezos sold stocks of Amazon worth billions (could be read everywhere)  and announced even more selling. Is this the behavior of a  billionaire to get rid of his stocks? Of course not, he wants to buy back the stock cheaper for pocketing some more billions . Elon Musk is a gambler, a few days ago Tesla announced that it will accept Bitcoin, now he withdrew.  As the Bitcoin didn`t rise any more he has to talk it down by his influence to step in cheap again. Large and clever  speculators, knowing how to do, at the end of the day they all  become richer. Only futures traders have seen the island reversal, the unsuspecting crowd thinks it will rise for ever. This may be tue, but until the next record high their money will be burned. Currently the Bitcoin is replaced by the Eretheum but like every new hype the Eretheum will meltdown sooner or later, the more attention it gets.

Weeks ago I wrote that 138.2 % extensions are battled, and the one at 33400 is a multi year extension,  a reason to worry only if it drops below and fails to exceed it again. Battling means battling, so this magnet could be in place for  a longer period. For the time being the YM isn`t trading yet below.

Keep cool and stay safe!

Weekend Report 05/08

Of course the main topic of the week is the Dow Jones. Shot up like a rocket through the major taget 34.375 and reversed exactly there at Friday`s down spike to another all time high. Better underestimating than overestimating. A big surprise and a good example that a market can stay overbought in the shorter time frames within a strong trend. After the first 30 minutes of the European opening on Friday it became clear that the YM wouldn`t drop and the plunge in the afternoon has been a big chance.  The developing uptrend  has been announced  from Tuesday on by the cumulative delta volume and the 240 minutes price channel  which formed a higher high and a higher low. Hope you payed attention to my mails and pocketed some money.

This move is clearly overdone, accompanied by a 240 minutes CCI at + 257 and and even the 480 minutes at + 293. It can`t be more overbought in higher time frames and I think this will lead into the next sideways period.  The sky is clearly not the limit, Fibonacci target of 36.000 not  far away and as long as the upper level of the 50 days value area is at the current the top it can expand. When it comes down (if the price is clearly below that level)  it signals a sideways range. Because levels are different in various time frames (I am repeating myself) the 480 minutes upper level is currently located at around 34.500. On the upside 34.700/ 800 are Fibonacci targets.

The NQ  has been deeply oversold on Thursday and has to find it`s direction. New support area 13.400 - 500 but the 321 isn`t  off the table yet. Still below the twelve weeks POC at 13.820, leaving a lower weekly shadow so it has to find it`s direction. The  FDAX reversed strongly but left a wick on the downside like the NQ and closed above the POC at 15.166. The weekly pattern of the FDAX is a popgun. 

Copper hit a new high at 4.76 $, Lumber  (1670 $) business as usual, all time high and starting to have a deeper impact on home buildings, what can lead to fewer consumer spending.

Gold continued it`s move after the breakout, next resistances from 1832 - 1870 $.

Crude closed at 64.90 and has built smaller resistance from 66.22 on. You know that it`s battling the 7 years major trading level which is a hard nut to crack. Indeed a weekly close above 65 $ seems possibles now. Although some smaller resistances  occurred, a  monthly close above it  would ring in a new era, depending on demand for oil. It can explode, checking it  from above and below, fall back and collapse, everything is possible. From the midterm view buyers are still in control. 

The Bund Future hesitates to drop of course but inflation talks are increasing, mainly in the U.S. For the ones that own long term fixed income securities I suggest the leveraged  10 x Bund short certificate, which is cheap because of  it`s leverage. You cannot loose much, it`s just an insurance fee.  While the 30 years German government bonds lost a lot, the inflation bound bond due in 2046 is near it`s all time high.

The Bitcoin closed slightly below the upper level of the 12 weeks value area and above the POC.  From the view at volume almost everything (only cumulative delta volumes still decreasing) is clean on the downside, now it is depending  on the down gap and getting over it. The 240 minutes is building a bullish rising triangle (there is no guarantee on any pattern!).  Not really much resistance, next week or even the weekend will tell. It should at least attack 60.335 and higher to eliminate the island reversal and climb up to record highs. I am reading right now that Berkshire Hathaway`s (Warren Buffet`s Investment Company) vice president considers the Bitcoin as disgusting. Well, the good old boys missed nearly the whole surge in tech stocks. Like everybody else, sometimes right, sometimes wrong. Anyway, keep your wallets open for a buy around 40.000 $ - if it happens....

The charts of the leaders in tourism Expedia, Tripadvisor and Carnival Corp.  look healthy although they are a little bit overbought, not overheated.  Others  are losing relative strength or fell back so we have to choose carefully only a few ones. Sleepy AMD should shoot up because of the shortage in semiconductors but now the chart of Texas Instruments looks more promising. We must pay attention to this sector. Also manufacturers of electronical equipment, which could be hurt by the shortage.

I locked in some profits or sold out with a small loss. If - for example - Sydney Airport - doesn`t react on good news I prefer to sell. Maybe I am wrong like in TUI AG. I become suspicious if analysts recommend a stock at an all time high like Applied Materials last week.  I bought the stock for the first time in 2016 at 25 $, now at 133 $. Of course I didn`t catch the whole move but some quite nice pieces of the cake. Sometimes these recommended stocks are headed for a fall sooner or later.

While everything gained during the prior week, who´s next to drop? The weakest charts can be seen in the long term bonds but it requires a whole lot of money to press them down. No idea, let the markets talk.

I did some changes in the subscription management. New customers have to pay the entire month, not depending on what date they subscribe. By the growing number of customers it takes too much time changing passwords so often. Existing customers don`t have to renew paying until the end of May.

Send some flowers to your Mum and have a nice weekend! 

Update 05/05

As you can see above, I shortened the table of trends for focusing on fewer instruments and detecting the longer term trends only. The ones of you who are short term traders can recognize the small moves on their own or with the help of my comments, investors are mainly interested in longer term trends. I will put more weight on individual stocks and cryptos where one can gain 3- 10 % a day.

Looking way back I rediscovered a very simple strategy for stocks that I found out in 2015.  I sold stocks which fell below the monthly pivot point and bought the ones which rose above. Like sometimes using a line chart, it`s good to get rid of all the other stuff  which nevertheless is needed to figure out levels for entries and exits. Nearly every pivot point in any time frame is like a magnet and there`s a high probability that these will be checked during the month, some extraordinary strong stocks might do not as well as very weak stocks. I will update the table of the major stock`s important levels in volume next weekend.

Big names in stocks, releasing good earnings currently don`t really attract investors anymore. What counts is the reaction, not the numbers. This is a sign of weakness in some tech stocks and shows that investors don`t want to buy a lot of stocks at these prices. Stocks with earnings below expectations are being punished without mercy . There are a many gaping up or down and we have to wait until the dust settles. Some violent breakouts can`t be overseen but I think it`s not such a good idea to jump on the bandwagon and one gets a better risk / reward ratio to buy  pullbacks at the breakout level, watching  60 and 240 minutes charts. Surely you will miss some large moves but that`s not the end of the world, the next chance is just around the corner. One of the victims is Teamviewer, but a large investor stepped in, for that reason I don`t drop it. Again you see how important it is to sell particular to get out of the danger zone.

Coming back to the latest weekend report, there is an upheaval going on in the world, caused by the cryptos. The latest information is that  central banks consider it a challenge and a serious danger because of crime and money laundering but don`t know what to do. We can`t know what will come out of it. The Bitcoin alone reached a market capitalization of more than one trillion dollars. As it is getting established more and more, I don`t think that a total meltdown like in the past will repeat. It can be compared to stocks, the larger the capitalization, the smaller the moves. Of course there  will  be wide swings up and down and this makes it amazing for traders and absolutely perfect for weekend traders. There is an unchecked former resistance at 40.000, this could be a great longer term buying opportunity. But as some things never happen, it is looking too far ahead. My believing is that it will move up again after the heavy selling of the prior two days when sellers have terminated their job. If you like, watch this video. Of course it`s advertisement but the message sounds very interesting.

https://weisscryptoalert.com/reports/WCI/gmr/event/?sc=8PSP&ec=LWCIAF05

Weekend Report 04/30

Sometimes it`s a matter of order. The YM 60 minutes popgun did it`s job first, followed by the down move on Friday afternoon. At the end of the day both probabilities came into play. Only on late Thursday the 60 minutes CCI reached overbought territory, no extreme on the downside. Is this good? Yes and no. A weak market rarely reaches overbought territory but hast got enough space to get into oversold condition as well. Not yet a closing price at or below the daily SMA 20 which is just a shot away from Friday`s close. The steepness fell from 87 per day on 04/21 to 36 on Friday.  Looking back at the current up move, good entry signals have been given when it went slightly negative and crossed the zero line from below. You can calculate it by using a momentum 1 on any SMA. No money - back guarantee!

This time crypto currencies are the main item. The Bitcoin gained 18 % last week while Ripple exceeded it by a skyrocketing 58 %. My brokerage announced the release of a micro Bitcoin futures contract from Monday on. In their opinion it will be very liquid because more and more traders are interested in trading these fast moving market instead of the slow stock indices, which only show high volatility if panic. Surely the spread will tighten the more actors are entering the stage. On the other hand it will lose volatility by higher trading volume but that`s a long way to go. Of course 1 % of 57.000 or higher numbers is much more than 1 % of the lame Dax at 15.000. When I changed from trading the FDAX to the YM the reason has been that the FDAX is really boring most of the time. Now it`s the same with the U.S. indices, compared to the Bitcoin. And this one is boring as well compared to the Ripple. Ok, I won`t continue. Maybe one will get a heart attack by day trading the Ripple. On Friday there has been a temporary deviation for some hours in the Bitcoin, the 05-21 traded 350 ticks above the cash market, unusual for a nearby contract and probably due to options expiration.

The prior week`s candle suggested a lower low but this week produced a counterattack bar wich is usually followed by a higher high. May be a matter of order as well, the island reversal has to be taken out so we have to watch the behavior if  approaching the gap. Twelve weeks value area upper level around 59.000 $. The 60 minutes SMA 200 is rising since Friday and the 50 days POC now at 55.070. Some unfinished business down to at least this level. While the Bitcoin closed at 57.000, the 60 minutes SMA 200 finished the week at far away 54.230, currently rising by 12 ticks an hour (which will change of course). 60 minutes CCI reached  + 277,  reasons for a retracement.

Paypal and some major companies announced that they will accept crypto currencies soon. It could be amazing, Paypal plans to offer buying and selling Bitcoins.

Another Wall Street game occurred when J.P. Morgan lowered the expectations for Twitter on Friday morning, well - behaved followers sent it down 15 %. Don`t think that J.P Morgan  has been selling short in advance. .....Cara Therapeutics lost nearly 50 % after releasing quarterly earnings so it`s removed from the table. This can always happen to speculative stocks after releasing disappointing earnings. Shot up a few weeks ago, leaving a huge gap and dropped to where it started in November, leaving a lonesome cloud in the sky. I have been trapped in Varta AG, following an enormous  amount of call options buying. Just a small accident, time will tell whether it has been short covering only. Cheers to the producers of alcoholic beverages, there are many good looking charts with strong trends but some are reaching overheated territory.  No reason to revise the table of important levels in stocks because nearly all major up trends are still intact. CBOE Holdings is at the edge, improved earnings but treading water at the SMA 200 and 200 days POC, perhaps it`s a good idea to sell for a zero sum game if it doesn`t climb. Will decide next week. Tesla reversed by a daily bullish engulfing pattern at the upper level of the 200 days value area. First Solar is endangered, gaped down below the rising SMA 200, lower level of the value area around 71 $. Similar constellation in Twitter. We had something like this a few weeks ago in AMD which rose  15 % from the lower level of the value area, below the rising SMA 200 and closing an up gap. 

Other markets: The Nikkei is poor, losing it`s advance while the MSCI Taiwan is climbing steadily.  If there wouldn`t be wicks, the Nikkei weekly chart  displays an island reversal but the game isn`t over yet as the daily SMA 200 is still far away and the chart of the CME futures contract is always looking like a swiss cheese. The FDAX checked the upper level of the 12 weeks value area 15.083 and finished the week above it. Crude 06-21 spiked slightly above 65 $ and closed below again. Gold has been rejected at 1798 $, the Euro FX exceeded the first target  1.2142 but failed to break the daily down trend.  A classical weekly key reversal which has to be confirmed. A new high in Copper at 4.55 $, no news on Lumber, all time high 1376 $. Even sand is getting rare, did you know that Dubai can`t use it`s desert sand for buildings and imported sand from Australia? 

The Bund Future is moving down slowly to 170.04, still support til 169.22.  U.S. T Bonds had to take a setback but closed above the twelve weeks POC.  I can`t remember any time for decades when soaring commodity prices didn`t have an impact on interest rates and the stock markets, a once in a lifetime constellation up to now.

Finally a hint for reading the table of strong trends: It will grow as long as there is enough space and a stock hasn`t to be erased (like Cara Therapeutics right now). You can use the zoom function of your browser to get a faster overview.

Have a great trading week!

Weekend Report 04/23

Nothing exiting in the stock markets, only a very strong Friday after the opening bell.  The Nikkei is stagnating, Alibaba Group reversed and closed the up gap, this is weak.  Ceragon Networks lost around 50 % , closing January`s  up gap. If it drops below, it will be removed from the list. A reversal at current levels would confirm the long term up trend. Netflix gaped down 7 %, just at the 200 days POC and below the flattening SMA 200. No island reversal because it`s within a sideways range. Not trending for 10 months.

If the YM will keep on rising from Monday on - what I doubt -  the next major target is at 34.375. The potential 1-2-3 top is off the table, I think it will still move sideways until the daily SMA 20 has caught up. In this case it will happen next week. From Tuesday afternoon CCIs of any time frame from 60 to 240 minutes have been  crossing the zero line a few times but only the  60 minutes CCI reached  an extreme level of -320 at last week`s low.

I have to correct a mistake, Copper is not at an all time high, last week`s closing price has been a new high of the current up move, this week another one, also based on the weekly close. An all time high again in Lumber at 1238 $. Crude made a higher high than the prior week`s high and ended up undecided, not reaching the 65 $ level. Gold is running into  resistance around 1800 $. The Euro FX climbed for the third consecutive week , finished the week at resistance. Next upper targets from 1.2142 - 1.2200 and 1.2295. U.S. T Bonds rose further on and should continue the move as there is some unfinished business on the upside.

So what remained to drop? The lonesome loser Bitcoin, also leaving a weekly island reversal. It should be ripe for  a  correction, but a lower weekly low could be in the cards, not necessarily next week. The 38.2 % RT of the up move from last year exactly at January`s high 43.900. Friday`s candle is a hammer above volume support, on Monday or Tuesday we will see whether it will bottom out. Opening gap up on Monday without filling the gap would be strong of course. Crystal ball....

Have a nice weekend and a successful week!

7am:

Bitcoin reversed at the 50 % RT 60.600 of the latest up move. Has to climb above 61.180 which should be possible because it`s a daily extreme level.

4:15am:

Looks like the YM wants to run further up. In this case there are upper targets at 33.984, 34.012, 34.034 and 34.050. Large resistance area from 915 on where it could be rejected as well. My believing is that the big short won`t happen today. Measuring the extension of the first two afters after the break, the 621. % extension is at 33.821. It can go below, but a larger move below is  more unlikely. That`s the state of the art at this  moment. Go shopping......oops, not possible.

Update 2am:

YM pivot point at 33.851. Now rising above yesterday`s POC at 888. Both levels will be the make o break.

No interest in the Bitcoin right now. It has got unfinished business at 64.375 or above and could make a higher low above 61.570 as it is just rejected at the S2 61.829, not really convincing yet and  trying to get out of a support rectangle. 60 minutes CCI still deeply negative at -141. So it will need time,  power or both. Below the 50 % RT  at 60.585 - weekly R1 30.792, which would extend a bull flag. Keep an eye on a 60 minutes close below 61.540 and a contrarian buying opportunitiy around 61.180. NQ has still left undercutting Wednesday`s low, but we never can reach 100 %, some patterns are simply failing.

Update 5pm:

YM exceeded the expectations. 33.964 is the weekly extreme level. It should fall back from there or from above below it. As it has been moving slowly upwards  it isn`t in overbought territory. So perhaps we might see an intra day reversal , checking the 34.000 and reversing back below 33.964. Look for shorting there  or below 33.867. Next supports at 844, 807 and 772, the currently most important levels. I cannot look further down for the time being because now there are a lot of support areas close together what could make it difficult to break through.  Gold broke  out of the sideways range but still has to exceed resistance areas from 1780 on.

Update 4/15 1am:

It doesn`t help anybody, but unfortunately my posting from Tuesday about the Bitcoin has been lost somehow. I detected a blow off in volume from 64.400 on and predicted a move to at least 61.700. It came down  from 65.400 to 61.570. Sorry for this. Now it`s got something to do on the upside. The YM reversed exactly at the weekly R1 and the target at 33.865 is still open. The exact number ist 33.838. A good friend of mine, a fellow trader, is convinced to short the market today.

I `m not that sure because the 60 minutes CCi just crossed the zero line from the downside, above the daily pivot point and the 240 minutes CCI is far away from overbought condition. Well, there are 16 hours left until the break and as today is "turn around Thursday" it maybe right or  maybe wrong.  It will definitely come down to 33.500, but that hasn`t to happen today. The most important levels on the downside are 33.662, 33.633, 33.613, 33.594, 33.570, 33.525 and 33.480-33.496, on the upside 33.691, the former all time high 33.712  33.753 and 33.772. The NQ is looking like it wants to make a lower low than yesterday, a spike in volume has piled up around 13.730.

Weekend Report 04/09

This week again we only have the NQ in focus. What else I should I write about stock indices  at all time highs and other stagnating markets?

The NQ broke out like foreseen last weekend and climbed 500 points. 13.321 could be checked from above. Both the NQ and the YM are accompanied by a large negative divergence in the cumulative delta volume, but as long as prices are rising we just have to ignore it. It might be a sign of an upcoming correction, but this is the way the stock market s go: three steps forward, two steps back. The Nikkei 225 is still trying to close above 30.000 - and it will, this is just a matter of time.

Crude Oil: Sideways,  57.25 important level on the downside. By looking at the monthly chart you can recognize the most traded level of the prior 7 years at 65 $.

Bitcoin: Twelve weeks point of control in volume at 55.400. This is the hop or top for the time being.

Lumber: All time high at 1134 $, weekly  a shooting star.

Copper: Flat between 3.84 and 4.23.  Seems like running out of steam.

U.S. T Bonds: Improving

Gold: Some signs of life but still sideways.

Weekend Report 04/03

There is really nothing worth to mention - without the exception of the NQ. The weekly key level is 13.321 and I think the NQ will break out to the upside. Closed late Thursday at 13.356. All major stocks that touched their SMA 200 closed above, some by a second try and Facebook with an all time high.  Sorry, but that`s all for this weekend. Happy Easter!

Weekend Report 03/27

Do you believe in fairy tales? Here`s one: On Thursday Fed boss Powell sent prices down by his comment. Really? I traded some moves. The cumulative delta volume flew up to the sky from the beginning while the YM seemed to collapse. It reversed below the 38.2 % RT of this months`s low and the whole thing has been done within less than one day.  Wall Street gambling at it`s best. I mentioned the upcoming quarterly window dressing and here we are, 3 trading days left. Weekly bar a bullish engulfing.

What to say about the NQ? Nothing. Without any direction, caught in a cage of five horizontal lines, daily 20-50-100 SMA all nearly at the same level and a bearish 20/50 crossover. This is just salad. Same with the Nikkei. If you are looking for something slightly positive: The NQ ´s weekly pattern is a bullish engulfing. So let`s come to some more interesting developments below these charts. (if there are any at all)

We can watch one  more rotation in stocks as mentioned last weekend. Overheated tourism stocks are getting out of favor for the time being, too much has been paid in advance and the progress in vaccination is not as fast as thought. Nevertheless they are worth a long term investment. Techs are administrating their levels, keep on rising or dropping.  The wild thing is taking a rest. So more conservative stocks like Lockheed Martin, United Health and Alcoa are in focus now. Not to forget the bank stocks from all over the world, which are showing improved strength.  An unexpected move happened in Facebook, moving sideways for a longer period, looked like it wanted to drop but now attempts at a new all time high if it breaks the upper level of the value area around 283 $.

The Bitcoin weekly chart displays an evening doji star. This is one of the imperfect patterns. The wick hints to an upper attack which might fail if buyers give up and sellers start to dominate. 50.000 still very important, a hole in volume around 44.000 -  45.000.

U.S. T Bonds: Failed again to close above 156.00 and the 50 % RT. Two weekly higher highs combined with new support areas and a higher low hint to a bear flag. Still bearish without a weekly close above 156.20.

Crude Oil: Two weekly lower lows, this week a hammer. Seems that there are still some buyers out there. Remember the large volume mountain of the monthly chart, Cl rode heavy attacks but failed so far. 

Lumber: All time high, but because of contract rollover below 1000. Gold: No message. Silver: No message. Copper: No message. EuroFX: Further down.

 

Update 03/17: Gold above 1740$. This level shoudn`t be undercut significantly for confirming a 1-2-3 bottom. YM reached target 33.000 and the 161.8 % extension. 33.197 would be the next target, but ripe for a correction. NQ is catching up. The Nikkei opened weekly gap up with a strong move but running into resistance now.

Update 03/15: Gold seems to be stabilizing and could form a small 1-2-3 bottom by exceeding 1740 and not not falling back below.

Update: 04:30: As you see, the market is really weak. Can only hope that 31.700 won`t be broken significantly. Normally it starts to climb when I write something like this.

Update 01:00: I think we will see 31.250 or higher (31.360) today or on Monday. If not, the picture worsens even more. Area around 31.144 could be a hurdle

Update 07:00: Bad sign, dropped below the value area at 30.884. So this is the first nut to crack. Minor support at 762.

Update 06:00: First upper targets: 30.957 - 31.008 -  31.055 - 31.083 - 31.152/58. Guess what? 31.250. Support 30.803, 30.790,  30.700 / 20, lower extrem would be 30.464/73. Below: 30.290, 30.078, 30.020,  30.000 or crash....Currently 3 % above November`s high, NQ`s low  today slightly below. 

Update 03:00: First step done, rejected at the lower level of the daily value area. Now go collecting some volume further down or exceed 30.945.

Update 02:20: That ´s what we like  - overshooting the main support. Got in at the start of the full hour 30.520 and will be a big winner.

Update 01:20: YM major weekly / monthly support 30.707  - 720. Could be reached within the next 45  - 90 minutes or 769 will hold. Large 240 minutes outside bar,

major resistance 30.986.

Update 03/04: The day after the Fed - when I wrote the morning update yesterday I mentioned some support levels but favored an upper breakout. Ahead of the Fed`s protocoll it became clear that it wouldn`t happen. Some might disagree but my observation is that Thursday often is a turn around day. Currently there is one more long wick in the 240 minutes. This can become a  morning star (crystal ball), on the other hand the wick is checked very often. At this time the bar isn`t finished yet. First 31.250 is the main decision point today.  Well, I have to work on popgun`s targets.....

Update 04:10: If 31.250 can`t be hold, minor popgun target is at 31.200, major target 31.134.

Update 03:30: NQ  main support at 12.675   and 12.473, spongy resistance around 12.780. Of course some supports between 12.473 and 12.675. 12.500 strong but there can be overshooting.

Update 02:15pm: Detected a popgun in the 480, ignited to the downside. Just take note of it. Not every popgun is a fake...

02/27 Weekend Report

Some  gamblers shorted the Bitcoin? Last time it took a few days to drop 30 %, this time a few hours to plunge 20 %. Funny game.

7 up, 12 down. The YM has been faking by a  lower low and grilled short sellers without mercy on Wednesday, the popgun even exceeded the usual targets to another all time high. Next day both the YM and the NQ gave back all of their gains, on Friday the former low has been taken out by plunging to 30.866, followed by a weak counterattack of 350 points, then dropping to 30.800 ( read the Weekend Report of 02/13) and closed at 30.912. Reminds me somehow of the days when I have been trading the FDAX. After three wild days I don`t hold a position over the weekend at a closing slightly above  week`s low,  but every fool is different. Watch out at 30.790, this is the 50 % RT from February`s low and the  61.8 %  RT at 30.498. Keep overshooting in mind.

The bad news:  A weekly bearish outside bar on heavy volume is left. The good news: The drop happened on a rising cumulative delta volume and the monthly pattern, finished on Friday, is a bullish engulfing, which has to be confirmed by a higher high during the month. This would be the first step. Second step is the challenge to stay at higher levels. Well, within around 20 days there can happen a lot and it`s not for sure that this bullish monthly pattern is a guarantee for rising further on. Weeks ago we had the same on the weekly Crude Oil chart but it didn`t occur at an all time high. Looking far ahead, quarterly window dressing will be done into the end of March but we don`t know when and from which level it will start.  So at the end of the day: Weekly pattern bearish, monthly pattern at least  not negative. Februar is finished and the 30.800 is of no more importance as a pivot R1 but the daily SMA 50 and the 50 days POC are located just there. I think you know the most often repeating scenario: First 20 days SMA is checked, then 50 days SMA  (which has been done weeks ago), then check of the SMA 100 if the SMA 50 will be undercut significantly and so on. Of course we will have the updated pivot levels on Monday. You can read the levels of the 50 days value area by Friday`s close. The larger the period, the more spongy these levels are and as you know they will change, depending on volume. The state of the art is: Upper level 31.550, POC 30.800 , lower level 30.310.

31.550 - 30.790 - 30.498 - 30.310, collection completed.

The NQ is running out of steam, the weekly bearish engulfing pattern had a big follow thru. Rejected below this`s months former low and closing below the daily SMAs 20 and 50. For sure there is  potential for a pullback,  but If it will plunge further hell freezes over. Again 12.730 is in the focus and very important.

What could be the summary of all of it? Large speculators don`t like to sell into falling prices. They push up the market for selling at high levels. This game can be repeated until the last stocks have been sold, then short sellers (which might be the same persons) are attacking aggressively and press prices down. Investors and speculators are stepping in again at low levels and the game will be restarted. That`s the way it goes, otherwise they are not able to make big money.

If I count last week`s price action of all markets together I am assuming that large investors and speculators are raising cash, but we can only guess. Unfortunately they don`t let us know what is in their heads.

The techs are overheated, many are too far ahead of their SMA 200 and when it comes to it,  the rising SMA 200 is serving as a support. Next check might be successful as well - or not. The first one is Facebook,  check of the SMA 200 done a few weeks ago, Friday`s close slightly below. If it doesn`t continue rising it will drop further on. Other Stocks  will behave the same. Have a look under comments on stocks at the table where I have listed the current  levels of support and resistance in volume of the most important stocks currently under detection.

Some people compare it to the internet bubble of 2001, but there is a huge difference. At that time the Internet age has just started with companies free of substance. Today many of them are market leaders in an ever growing segment. But if Apple is worth more than the entire German Dax there is something wrong.

The background are also further rising long term interest rates, which we mentioned last week. Another week down for U.S T Bonds. This is hurting interest rate sensitive stocks without earnings or huge debt at most. U.S T - Bonds came down from 182 to  157 since August and are attracting investor`s money the further they drop. Closing on Friday has been just above long term support in volume 159.00 at 160.00. The 50 % RT of the longer up move is around 156.00. At a decision point within the next days or weeks. The other sight is the negative correlated TYX, which is showing a short term daily topping pattern.

I think that tourism will be the main item for the upcoming months. There is an enormous amount of catching up to do in terms of travel although a lot of stocks have already had a nice run up. Large Investors might change from the techs into tourism. I have added some stocks of interest to our list. You  will look for airlines in vain. I never buy airlines because there too many risks and dependencies like terrorism, plane crashes, bankruptcy, crude oil prices, legal restrictions, forced groundings and fights with the unions.  So I suggest to build up a portfolio of the dominating companies in tourism step by step. Surely the best entry point is missed, on the other hand  tourism is a long term growth branch which has been hit hard by Covid,  but this is of no more importance for these stocks, they are looking into the future and the current  problem will be solved sooner or later.

GC: Below SMA 200,  supports 1760 / 1747 melt like butter in the sun and closed at 1729. Not looking very good for the time being but ripe for a correction to the upside.

SB: Weekly shooting star.

HG: High at 4.36 but weekly shooting star let it close at 4.12

LB: All time high, weekly shooting star.

BTC: Big fat weekly bearish engulfing pattern, because of a wick on the downside there could be attempts to check the upside.

CL: Daily  chart looks like the YM a few weeks ago, but a really  perfect evening star. In the YM there has been an upper attack at the pattern which failed and let it drop significantly. Volume resistance now at 63.25, support 60.32 and 59.32 by Friday`s close.

Update 02/25: Now we have crystal clear support and resistance levels on Gold: 1760 -1834 -1902. Significant break below 1760 wouldn`t be  good for longs.

02/13 Weekend Report

We first analyze the daily chart of the YM. Everything seems to be ok. You see the battle around  31.250. But now the subjective sight: We are going into this month`s second half, when sometimes trends are changing direction. At a high probability resistances which have been taken out  will be checked from the upside. The monthly R1 around 30.800 hasn`t been checked and there is no obligation to do it. Three daily dojis are expressing  that there is no  interest in heavy buying -  that`s what we thought, but he last 90 minutes on Friday changed it completely and let the YM close slightly below the all time high. The most important area from the view at volume is around 31.310 - 360, this is the 10 days POC and the upper level of the 20 days value area. So be prepared for 30.800, this would be a great short term buying opportunity from today`s view. Maybe there  will be just another shortlived downspike, 600 ticks, what we have seen on a few days at the end of January as a daily range. Overshooting is quite normal.

If that doesn`t happen, it won`t be a broken leg.

NQ: Battle around 13.750.

CL: Exceeded 261.8 % Extension at 58.15, sold half of our positions. Approaching to a huge volume area above what makes it difficult to carry on this move. Starting from 59 - 60 $. Closed at week`s high 59.73.

GC: Bad boy reversed at 1785 to 1856, five above support. Last word not spoken, finished the week at 1822. Tight 12 weeks value area.

Bitcoin: Breaking out to the upside like favored in the latest Weekend Report. The sky is the limit - until the next crash. Well, this thing is hot and we are honest to admit that we missed it all because we are more concentrating on other markets. This has to be changed. The BTC broke out of a very long sideways range around 10.000$ and has been overseen by us. We`ve been too suspicious. Missed 50.000 $ by a few ticks this week.

You think that Bitcoin is the superstar? Take a look at Lumber. From below zero to 989 $ within 10 months. Never seen something like this in the futures markets within 30 years. New all time high. Panic pushed prices down, forest fires may be one reason for this spectacular upmove, large speculators stepped in.

Copper: took the chance by holding the 3.50 / 60 support to blow away the old resistance area up til 3.80 $. No all time high but also no important resistance above.

Update 02/11: After checking the monthly opening at 126 and the weekly PP by an one hour downspike the YM ist still directed upwards but loosing momentum. Would sell something around 31.400 - 500. NQ at 13.750, would also sell some at this level if you are not a long term investor.CL: Sold half of our positions at 58.50 as running above 261.8 % extension 58.15. Now it is hanging around there.

02/06 Weekend Report

At first we take a look at our stocks. We had some big winners and only one looser (Cirrus Logic, - 8%) last week.     

Review of the markets:

Comments on single stocks will be released on Sunday.

What should we say? One of the best weeks is behind us. Last weekend`s predictions at nearly 100 % can`t be beaten. There will occur much more difficult  times, that`s for sure.

YM 03-21 Held support at 29.650 including a short-lived fake to 29.552 and went up to 31.149, around 5 %. Not very often that one catches a bottom, never sell right at the top so you could have made at least 2.5 -3 % this week and perhaps it might increase. No breakout yet, the picture improved of course, but you`ll never know, we have seen a lot of fakes. On Thursday there has been heavy buying but clever big boys never place large  buy orders near the top, the reason could have been covering short positions. If this would be true, it means that they don`t bet no longer on falling prices. The best what can happen is dropping on a rising CD, but it doesn`t look like it wants to drop. CD´s short term moving averages made a bullish crossover. So  again the only question that we can sing for weeks: Breakout or still sideways? On Friday three short term sell signals in the 15, 60 and 120 minutes took place from 31.149 and 31.126 with the lower level at 30.982, so that 31.149 has to be exceeded. At 31.161 there is a sell signal in the 120 from weeks ago. The 240 displays a 127.2 % extension wave at Friday`s high. 127.2 % wave extensions are of some importance and often mark a reversal. Gapping up on Monday would solve the problem  at once if there will be no intraday reversal. On the other hand, the cash market has left three unfilled gaps on the downside.  From a volume`s view there is nearly nothing above. Daily 20 periods CCI returned above zero on Friday, 20 and 50 days SMAs are  rising slightly ,  20 days SMA is still above SMA 50. If you leave out everything else the only statement can be that this constellation is still bullish. Also the weekly chart displays a bullish engulfing pattern. This is more weighty than the short term intraday sell signals. A retest of the 50 days value area at around 30.800 is possible as well. As the 20 days POC is at 30.876, the area from 30.750 - 800 shouldn`t be undercut significantly for breaking out of the sideways range. Next major target on the upside is 30.250, If it will be taken out, we use the Fibonacci extensions, but from today`s view it`s not yet necessary to mention because after  leaving a sideways range you shouldn`t sell all directly at these levels in uncharted territory. Anyway, watch 31.250. We will place an update here on the day it is taken out.

USD based investors should take a look at the chart below the charts of the YM. The upper window is displaying the MDAX, the second one the Euro FX. If you bought around last year`s low you can add around 20 % windfall profits by a rising Euro.  At the right side both the MDAX and the FDAX compared. You can get better results by trading the FDAX if you buy on heavy dips  but in the long run the MDAX is more stable. The error in the FDAX data is a problem for weeks and it seems like it can`t be solved.

NQ 03-21: All time high, next target 13.750 and the extensions 13.925 and 14.130. 13.500 still important  and can remain a battleground. Reversed  at predicted support 12.730. Weekly pattern  is also a bullish engulfing and closed on Friday exactly at last week`s high. Exceeded the weekly 161.8 % extension by Friday`s close.

CL 03-21: Without words, also reversed  exactly at last week`s mentioned support, more than 10  % this week. We can`t recognize a limit by week`s close. From 8.63 to 57.00 within 10 months. A phenomenon is that  weekly charts sometimes look different after contract rollovers.

Lumber 03-21: Another all time high.

GC 04-21: Directed downwards but some support levels below, no idea. Supports at 1780, 1747, 1733 and 1700. Most important is 1747 which could be a battleground. Closed at 1812 below the twelve weeks value area , lower level 1827 by leaving a weekly bearish engulfing pattern. There is a correlation to the USD for decades, if the USD is rising, gold drops. But you cannot count on it at a 100 % probability. Last year it worked pretty good, gold skyrocketed while the USD lost around 15 % against the Euro.

Copper 03-21: Seems to weaken, 3.50/60 make or break, still sideways but main uptrend intact.

Bitcoin 03-21: Sideways but looks like it wants to go further up.

EuroFX 03-21: Have been slightly wrong, down to 1.1964, closed at (still) support 1.2030. Boring.

 

 

01/30 Weekend Report

The first question to answer is whether it is the right time to invest larger amounts of money. We won`t do this at 4.5 % below the high, just the opposite, we sold 70 % of our longer term ETF positions on the Dow now for increasing cash. Two big chances occurred last year, in March the chance of  a decade and between 10/28 and 11/02. Bought ETFs on the Dow, Nasdaq and MDax for investing.   One reason is the move out of a sideways range in the VIX, which has a negative correlation to prices. It hasn`t reached an extreme level yet, just started to climb. We only invest after a decline of at least 10 - 20 %. Trading is a different thing. Decide on your own.

In January the YM has just been a trader`s market, a breakout failed slightly above the 161.8 % extension and the often repeated wisdom "false breakout are followed by fast moves" nearly came true if you leave out Thursday. Unpredictable moves ahead, we wrote last week.

Monthly`s close is below November`s high, so 2.5 months for nothing. In our forecast of 01/09 we suggested to wait for a retest of the 29.700 - 30.100 area. Here we are. From Wednesday to Friday we have seen huge amounts of big orders for the first time during the last few weeks. On Friday the YM reached the 12 weeks point of control in volume at 29.753. This is generally a strong support so the further direction  is depending on this level for the time being.  Ìt attacked  30.113 six times by hourly bars to break  below at the end of the day.  This is the first level to watch on Monday`s opening, then the 50 days SMA at around 30.250.  Other important levels on the upside are at 30.480, 30.520 and 30.687, not yet knowing the weekly and monthly pivot points which will be displayed after Monday`s opening and should be checked at a high probability during next week. The worst that can happen is a downgap on Monday without an intraday reversal. Main support on the downside around 29.650. The state of the art is that the sideways range has widened but there is the very negative cumulative delta volume at -19.000, measured by a start on 01/14. We are showing two charts. At first the longer term weekly chart. The weekly CCI divergence spotter is sending it`s third warning since August 2018. Normally we don`t draw lines manually but in this case we do after failing to exceed it. You recognize the breakout level at 29.000 where the upper line of the 52 weeks value area is located. We repeat again: Lines of  value areas are changing, depending on volume, the shorter the period, the faster they change. A good example is the Euro FX weekly POC coming down last week. 

The NQ exceeded it`s 161.8 % Extension by 100 points, then reversed to end up  with a weekly loss of 440 points, 12 week`s POC at 12.730 by Friday`s close. The CD volume is directing upwards by a positive divergence.

Comments on other markets and stocks below the charts.

 

 

FDAX 21/03: Weekly bearish engulfing pattern. Support around 13.240. 

GC 21/04: Rejected at resistance 1880. Still sideways.

CL 21/03:  Mentioned 52.82 last weekend. Has been messing around this level from Monday til Friday. Three weekly shooting stars and three lower lows is an indication of selling pressure. Now 51.56 -78 important.

HG 21/03: Sideways for the 7th consecutive week, resistance at  3.72  has to be taken out, support around 3.400. 

LB 21/03: All time high.

Euro  FX  21/03: POC now down at 1.2240. Should be a battleground from 1.2060 - 1.2325

BTC 21/03: Elon Musk rules the world. Sideways.

Stocks:

Facebook: No surprise, rejected at 285 $ but exceeded the 4th lower high. One gap still open around 250 $. Will meet the SMA 200 for the second time. Resists one time, two times(?) or three times, but one day game will be over. AMD: Another failed breakout at 94.50 Big looser last week, bearish engulfing pattern. Netflix: Given back nearly all. Unfilled gap at 500 $. Microsoft:  Violent breakout to  242 $, make or break now around 220 $. Amazon: Weekly bearish dark cloud cover but still above 200 days POC 3172 $. Applied Materials: Loosing 15 % within 8 days. Weekly bearish engulfing pattern. Apple: Failed to breakout above 138 $. Weekly bearish dark cloud cover. Tesla: Weekly bearish engulfing pattern, three weeks popgun.  Macy`s: Nearly doubled within six days, leaving a long upper wick. 16 -16.65 and 19.38 resistance above. Seattle Genetics: One of our longer term favourites weakens. Three lower highs, below SMA 200 and 200 days POC. Resistance from 168 $ to 178 $, support around 150 $. A false breakout to the downside will urge shortsellers to close positions. 

01/23 Weekend Report

Winner of the week is of course the Nasdaq, driven by Netflix (up 15%). Netease (11%), Facebook (8%), Alphabet (Google, 7 %) and Apple (5 %). As mentioned last week, during earnings season sometimes you can forget your charts (Netflix has blown away a lot of resistance above). The daily  NQ chart displays a 161.8 % extension around 13.365 where a peak in volume has developed but weekly chart`s 161.8 % extension is at 13.502. A weekly bullish engulfing pattern, closed at 13.361.

The YM failed to break out after a promising intraday run up on Thursday and went back sideways to close at 30.891  on Friday so that it is still moving sideways for the third consecutive week. 60 minutes CCI went below zero after the opening but isn`t yet at an extreme level. Countless times we have seen 30.835 and 30.960 , the important levels to watch in our latest forecast. Looks like waiting for the 20 days SMA to decide on the further direction.  On Friday the SMA closed at 30.682, rising by around 50 points per day. The three day`s pattern from Wednesday to Friday looks like a bearish evening doji star, but there is no downgap from the doji and Friday`s closing off the low at  791 didn`t make it really perfect so it could be a kind of a failed pattern. Intraday  the trend has changed, a higher low and higher high this week  but that`s only a matter of fact as long as there is no breakout done.

GC 21/04made a low  at 1801 but holding the 1824 support and closed at 1856. Twelve weeks POC in volume at 1862.

CL 21/02 displays a weekly bullish engulfing pattern but this is more an upside reversal at a bottom so it`s just trend confirming. A lower high and a higher low can also point to sideways action. From Monday on we will use the 21/03.  Volume peak at 52.82.

Bitcoin gamblers had to take big losses after the high at 42.400 two weeks ago down to 28.900, closing at 33.580.

01/16 Weekend Report

To be honest: We don`t  have any idea what will  be going on in the stock markets next week. The omens for Monday are not too good. Ok, there is a double top from the prior two weeks candles. But first - a real double top is rare and second - normally there are some bars between the tops. So what we can detect for the time being is just a sideways range, which can find a bottom at  the 20 days moving average around 30.460/70, at 30.100 and at an extreme 29.700. The YM lost around 350 points, based on the weekly close, which is nothing. 

Surely also a negative sign for the stock markets is the heavy breakdown of the cumulative delta volume on Thursday and Friday, which accumulated to - 7700 within two days  - but this can change anytime.

Next week`s Pivot Point will be above Friday`s closing price so this could be some kind of a make-or-break  level. We will monitor closely 30.835 -30.960 on the upside.

Intraday there is a slightly lower high and a lower low which means that it has established a downtrend.

We took a cursory look at the Nasdaq leaders  - which are  mostly moving sideways  as well. At first sight Facebook caught our attention, also some real double tops in other stocks which might give an  indication of the Nasdaq`s further action.

What we see is a continued surge in commodity prices and the Bitcoin quadrupling from October on.

01/09  Weekend Report

The YM 161.8% Fibonacci range extension has been reached, also a 161.8 % extension from September`s high. As we are in uncharted territory, there is not very much to say. The upmove from October`s low has first been very steep, then followed by weeks of sideways movements due to seasonal reasons. Time might be ripe for at least another sideways action. For longer term Investors no reason to sell big at the moment but perhaps some profitaking and waiting for a retest of the breakout level around 29.700 - 30.000 to increase positions again. But keep in mind: False breakouts are not rare, if there will be no follow thru, buyers at high levels become disappointed and could sell at their entries or below out of fear. We added a chart displaying the Fibonacci RTs from the low to Friday`s high, which will be of no meaning if Friday`s high would be exceeded.

12/12 Weekend Report

DJIA Futures 03/21 No shortterm position over the weekend. The weekly chart doesn`t give any new hints. 29.850 is the make or break level fore the time being. The daily chart displays three lower highs and 3 lower lows, which could be a topping pattern. Wednesday`s night warning that there is a high probability for a pullback did it`s job. If Friday`s low will be undercut without exceeding Thursday`s high it can become dangerous, it`s often followed by a fourth, fifth or even more significant lows. Friday`s candle is called a doji , only a small body with a long wick on the downside. The meaning is, that here has been enough demand to push the market up from the low 624 back to the opening price 971. Buying pirates are still entering the enemy`s ship. At a bottom it often marks a low. A subjective interpretation is, that the wick shows, where the market wants to go, but in a row of downwicks it means that there is always interest in buying at different levels and the sellers haven`t got enough power to push prices further down. You can see a good example for this theory in the 480 minutes chart on 12/10. On Friday this wick has been undercut.

Conclusion: One thing has got a high probability: The move upwards seems to be continued from the 480, at least a little bit for the time being. As you can detect in the chart of the 480 there is still more resistance above than support below, a new formed support area in the 480 would be first displayed on Monday, and we think it will be so. In the 60 there are two new support areas, one from 29.624 to 29.694 and one from 29.720 to 29.824. Watch out for an intraday reversal on Monday. Either the market has already come down from above Friday`s high when you wake up or it will change direction during the main trading hours. In case that this won`t happen you can return to your bed if you are not a scalper. We have a lot of contrarian signals, which is normal within a sideways range. Next resistance above 30.125 is at 30.223, 30.233 and 30.248, so a full package but nearly uncharted territory.